Can Rudd cash in on the Obama effect?
Can Kevin Rudd’s appointment of Obama’s digital team have an actual impact on the forthcoming election? In a piece that first appeared in Encore, Rachel Mulholland looks at the likelihood.
Rudd’s decision to hire Obama’s digital SWAT team has upped the social media stakes in the forthcoming election. But will this have a tangible impact on the polls? Obama’s social media big guns will likely give Rudd an edge with young Australians; something he’s worked hard to build since before the ‘07 election.
While social media is not just the domain of youth in Australia, 18-to-34 year olds dominate the most active sites and, as the first to adopt each platform, have set the rules of social behaviour. Thus, ‘social cred’ gained through social media wins will have more influence on the political decision making of younger Australians. Social media is like the tabloid press in that it thrives on high emotion. Rudd’s newly appointed digital gurus, keenly aware of this fact, will play to powerful emotions like mirth and indignation to achieve online “virality” (the definition of social cred). This, coupled with real-time marketing – the latest infatuation of businesses around the world – will likely be central to Labor’s social media strategy.
We can expect to see an increase in real-time combative campaigning, like YouTube, Instagram, Vine videos and blogs that ridicule or attack the opposition by latching on to any gaffes. Insights from the Obama campaign will be invaluable here.
Personal branding, engagement and mobilisation
Just like the Australian business community, Rudd has increasingly used social media to show he is just an “ordinary” guy and to build his image as the dorky, yet endearing fatherly figure. Whether cool or on the level of a daggy dad joke, Rudd’s recent shaving cut selfie showed an acute understanding of the power of social media for creating a personal brand.
But beyond providing a window into Rudd’s personal life, success will depend on Labor’s ability to integrate the web into everything they do and genuinely make politics more accessible by reaching out and engaging with people. Obama excelled at this during the 2012 election by answering unique interests and addressing specific needs of voters and campaign supporters; something that can be put down to his data-driven approach. Rudd’s reputation for returning the follow on Twitter, particularly of his younger fans, shows engagement is already a focus. He is also generating online conversations and fostering advocacy, with around 14,000 people talking about him on Facebook, compared to only 871 talking about Abbott. Nevertheless, Rudd’s digital team lacks the data crunchers and lead time Obama enjoyed.
As with the 2012 Obama campaign, mobilisation of supporters wanting to play an integral role in the campaign’s success will also be a crucial element in Rudd’s online strategy. The decision to announce the election date via social media and email is a case in point – followers and supporters were made to feel like insiders “in the know” before the official announcement to the masses. A sense of personal engagement with a campaign drives both energy and momentum: a reversal of the sense of disempowerment many tend to complain about.
The “Obama Effect”
Obama effectively wrote the social media playbook for politicians during his 2008 campaign and is said to have won the 2012 election because of social media. His team was expert at adapting social and cultural trends, giving Obama the edge in terms of ‘coolness’.
By hiring Obama’s social media gurus, Rudd is aligning himself with this image of a “daggy-cool”, forward-thinking, innovative politician.
It positions him as politically savvy and on top of industry, social and cultural trends. This will affect attitudes beyond Australia’s youth market.
It will also help to ‘globalise’ the election. Obama received a lot of social media support from the global community during the 2012 election which would have impacted opinions on the home front. Beyond international supporters, it attracts those interested in the impact of social media on politics. Let’s face it, that’s the business community in most Western markets.
A quick search for “Obama and social media” or “Kevin Rudd” on Google UK, Italy, Germany, Ireland and China returns stories about Rudd’s new digital hires. Clearly, in an increasingly globalised political, social and cultural landscape, social media has the ability to play a pivotal role in positioning Rudd as a leader on the global stage.
A social boxing match
So how do our two contestants compare?
Currently, the weedy Rudd is streets ahead of the boxing blue Abbott in the social media sphere.
In the July before the 2007 election, Rudd had more than 1,600 Facebook likes, a number that was growing at a rate of around 200 per day. Now Rudd has more than 93,300 Facebook followers compared to Abbott’s 39,300.
This time around, Twitter, Instagram and other social channels are also in play. Rudd has been growing his Twitter fan base since November 2008, with in excess of 1,300,000 followers, more than eight times Abbott’s 148,765 despite a social media push from the Liberals since the 2010 election.
It’s not all about numbers – I’d estimate around 40 per cent of followers would be fake accounts anyway. However, it’s interesting to note that as of election night in 2012, Obama had around 32m Facebook likes, 21m Twitter followers and 259,685 YouTube views, whereas Mitt Romney had 12m Facebook likes, 1.7m Twitter followers and only 29,172 YouTube views.
Nevertheless, Rudd and the Labor Party still have a long way to go on social media. Their approach to date has been ad hoc, with no defining ideas or synchronisation of messages across pages and channels.
The same goes for the Liberal Party. Abbott is struggling to find his voice on social media, with comments reading more like excerpts from press releases than genuine attempts to engage or join the conversations of constituents.
Since Obama’s 2012 campaign, social media in politics has taken off globally. And it’s not just the Western world either; it is expected to play a key role in the upcoming electoral battles in both India and Zimbabwe.
But social media also ushers in a new era of transparency for politicians and politics generally. If there’s no substance behind the spin, it will do more damage than good in the modern-day town square.
Providing Rudd’s new team works to this ‘truth’ and can drive enough momentum over the coming weeks, social media could be a critical decisive element that sets a precedent for political campaigning in Australia.
Rachel Mulholland is a marketing executive with the Clemenger Group.
This story first appeared in the weekly edition of Encore available for iPad and Android tablets. Visit encore.com.au for a preview of the app or click below to download.