Analyst: Ten should under promise and over deliver in 2014
Ahead of tonight’s Ten upfronts, the network has been warned it should under promise and over deliver in 2014 as it aims to win advertisers for the next year’s TV programming.
All three free-to-air networks are currently aiming to win over media buyers by previewing their schedules and strategies for the next year, but none will have a harder job than Channel Ten this evening, media analyst Steve Allen said.
Although the network took what was described as a “humble” approach to programming last year, offering more consistency and less risk, the fact that the chief executives who presented those promises have not remained at the network may make next year’s lineup a harder sell, said media analyst Steve Allen.
James Warburton, the Ten Network CEO, was replaced by Hamish McLennan after he was sacked by the board in February while sales boss Barry O’Brien left the network in July after little more than a year.
The safe and consistent lineup included franchises such as Masterchef, which took a dive in the ratings this year, as well as bringing back Puberty Blues and The Simpsons onto the main channel and a new venture with Masterchef: The Professionals which launched before the official ratings season kicked off in January. Also highly anticipated were US imports such as Elementary, Ripper Street and American Idol.
However Ten’s ratings have continued to fall.
“It’s deeply worrying that we have had three years of turmoil at Ten, two years of absolutely catastrophic ratings, and the people who got up to try to convince us to put client money last year are not there to hold to account. It’s just pitiful,” said Allen, chief executive of Fusion Strategy.
“Their biggest problem is that nothing is working on Ten because it’s not a network of choice, it’s the third or fourth network of choice, so good quality programs like Wonderland can’t even get up. Nearly every program they air is not achieving its full potential.”
Drama series Offspring did not run for as long as expected, and Puberty Blues, also produced by Southern Star, did not return as promised Allen said. Meanwhile viewers were also denied Screentime drama Batavia.
Meanwhile Seven and Nine have shared the bulk of the free-to-air audience, creating a risk for Ten of the two channels each taking around 40 per cent of the free-to-air television advertising revenues and leaving Ten with just 20 per cent.
Although Ten will have a stronger start to the year with The Big Bash League cricket games on in December and January, providing a platform to launch new shows, Allen said additional advertising is also vital.
Allen said Ten has not delivered on last year’s promises to increase its advertising in other media such as print and outdoor, and it will have to if the network wants ratings to improve.
“I didn’t see any ads in newspapers and I suspect they didn’t carry through with that promise to back their programming and promote it off air and that’s what they are going to have to do,” Allen said.
“That’s what they should have done last year. It’s just gross incompetence and it’s very clearly in the boardroom.”
While Nine has not delivered in its very specific promise of growing its audience in key demographics by five per cent, Allen says it has grown two per cent in the key advertising demographics and has won the highest ratings in 16-54s.
He added: “It was a brave call so we weren’t surprised they ended up missing their guarantee but they have increased their audience by one or two per cent on their main channel, causing a lift in 16-54s, so it doesn’t matter.”
Channel Seven meanwhile has brought in the largest audience across all demographics with big shows drawing large audiences from outside of the key demographics, such as over 40s.
“Seven and Nine got a bit of a free pass with Ten in such a crippled state,” Allen said. “Nine will win in every demographic and Seven understood that was the challenge and got far more big programs.”
When Seven’s highly promoted series Celebrity Splash turned out to be a flop it was cut short and moved, as was reality show The Mole.
Meanwhile Ten can learn from its mistakes by not over-promoting shows, such as The Bachelor, where they pin all hopes for a disappointing ratings result.
Megan Reynolds
Sorry Steve,
If you think Wonderland was a good quality program then you’ve lost it. It was clichéd and dull and so disconnected from the suburban youth audience that you’d really want to ask what were they thinking. And Puberty Blues didn’t rate first time round and won’t the second time. Batavia is a gruesome, cannibal story and incredibly expensive to make. I doubt Ten could increase its licence fee enough to get it made. Would have been better to keep under wraps until they knew they could make it for the money. None of this seems too strategic to me. Ten’s content is all over the place which is what happens without leadership and strategy.
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Any advertisers whose agency has committed 50% of their FTV budget to Ten should review immediately and consider changing agencies!!! So many deals at the moment are 50% Ten leading up to Christmas, it just doesn’t make sense….
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Puberty Blues averaged in the 700K’s in a schedule that was averaging around 3-400K. Rated pretty well IMO.
The whole risk adverse strategy isn’t working very well and might actually prove their final demise.
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What Harry said…..
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Wow, Steve also doesn’t know much about the production industry. Wonderland certainly wasn’t produced by the creators of Offspring and Puberty Blues that do come from the one company. I also think that’s pretty apparent given the quality of the three shows,
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For years now I have read Mumbrella stories with Steven Allen quoted. I suggest a Mumbrella Hangout with Steve so that those working in the TV landscape might be able to ask him a few tough questions themselves.
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Lack of Programming expertise is Channel 10’s gaping hole and the root cause of most of their problems. Chopping David Mott was one of their biggest mistakes. They should have spent what I’m guessing was a very significant amount on so-called wunderkid, Adam Boland, on poaching the best programming talent they could afford from 7 or 9.
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Whilst the few commercial TV networks hold on to their antiquated broadcast models, refuse to invest in on-demand and continue to make bad Australian TV, they these networks will continue to go down the toilet.
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Speaking as a viewer, I believe that a significant part of the problem is over-promotion of upcoming shows. Nine at the moment is almost continually running promos for that new show, what’s its name (I don’t know because as soon as it comes on I switch channels). Ten and Seven aren’t much better but even Aunty is getting in on the act. If a show is over-promoted, I refuse to watch it. I’m probably missing some good shows but I don’t care – it’s my protest! Enough already, guys. But I have to admit that Discovery Channel plays all the FTAs off a break – they cut mid sentence to show you the same promo you saw 10 minutes earlier, and 10 minutes before that, and 10 minutes before that. It’s enough to make you scream!
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I have a simple rule. I never read a article which has Mr Allen quoted in it.
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Only thing decreasing in value quicker than Ten’s share/ratings is the value of Steve Allen’s ‘expert’ opinion. Mumbrella, please get someone else’s opinion for a while
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Steve has it right – from an old Armchair !
Ten have displayed a distinct lack of strategic ability and importantly a shocking set of outcomes that are inconsistent and not credible over the past few years.
The Board and Chairman should be held accountable given the loss of ratings, revenue, shareholder wealth, brand value and executive experience.
Best of luck – but I suspect a sombre night ahead tonight and regardless of where it is pitched by Ten – a failing result next year.
I hope we do not hear another apology from incoming CEO Hamish McLennan like predecessors Murdoch and Warburton have done over recent upfronts.
I will enjoy the wine tonight regardless !
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Lauren – I also read Mumbrella but only from time to time , and they should ask Steve Allen more questions for the trouble network, as I want to see it in more depth
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Gonzo beat me to it. Even a brief look at Wonderland makes it apparent that it’s not a Southern Star John Edwards show.
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Steve is a professional critic. Wtf has he programmed?
Experts after the fact are not worth quoting!
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Ten Upfronts – well they are certainly UNDER PROMISING with that line up last night.
Not a lot of depth and even the struggling formats have been renewed.
Any chance we can get some real strategy going guys ?
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“Ten needs to lower expectations – somehow”.
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Okay lest get one thing straight…Wonderland is pandering, undercooked dramatic dross. If people think this is quality then we have a far bigger problem in this industry than first thought. It’s awful.
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Hi all,
Just to be clear it was my mistake to say Wonderland was made by the same producers as Offspring and Puberty Blues, not Steve Allen’s.
Wonderland is produced by Fremantle Media and Offspring and Puberty Blues are Southern Star productions.
I’ve updated the story.
Cheers,
Megan