Warc cuts Australian ad spend growth in 2015, with TV growth halved
Advertising research platform Warc has revised down its expected ad market growth in Australia and globally for 2015, with ongoing global economic problems blamed for the changes.
Australia’s ad market is now predicted grow 2.7 per cent this year, down 0.2 per cent from the predictions in July last year. Globally the ad market is expected to grow by 5.1 per cent, after an estimated rise of 5.3 per cent in 2014.
The latest Warc Consensus Ad Forecast has also slashed the expected rate of growth for TV expenditure to 2.6 per cent, a 2.7 per cent reduction on previous estimates.It suggests growth in India and China will be well ahead of any other countries at 11.6 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively. Of the 13 markets it covers, only France is now expected to go backwards in 2015 with 0.1 per cent retraction.
| Yr-on-yr % change |
Percentage point difference vs July | |
| India | 11.6 | 0.6 |
| China | 10.3 | 0.0 |
| Brazil | 7.1 | -0.8 |
| UK | 5.7 | 0.0 |
| Spain | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| US | 3.5 | -0.3 |
| Canada | 3.4 | -0.5 |
| Australia | 2.7 | -0.2 |
| Japan | 1.9 | -0.4 |
| Germany | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| Russia | 1.4 | -7.1 |
| Italy | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| France | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| Global | 5.1 | 0.1 |
Web marketing is expected to lead the charge with 16 per cent global growth, followed by cinema, which is expecting a high grossing year courtesy of more blockbuster releases than usual, and out of home at 3.9 per cent. Magazines and newspapers globally are set to decline by 3.6 per cent respectively.
| Yr-on-yr % change |
Percentage point difference vs July | |
| Internet | 16.0 | -0.4 |
| Cinema | 4.0 | -0.6 |
| Out of home | 3.9 | -0.7 |
| TV | 2.6 | -2.7 |
| Radio | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Magazines | -3.6 | -0.1 |
| Newspapers | -3.6 | 1.2 |
James McDonald, Research Analyst at Warc said: “The global economic outlook is more uncertain than six months ago, with Eurozone stagnation, Russian sanctions and a slowdown in Asia all threatening growth. It is therefore unsurprising that many market-watchers, including us, have revised down expectations.
“Despite the uncertainty, we should still see growth in global advertising expenditure of between 5-6% this year and next.”
The data is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.
