Media analyst: Ten needs 100,000 viewers to help save The Circle as the morning battle intensifies
Nine’s Today show has moved closer to Seven’s morning market leader Sunrise, OzTam ratings analysis carried out by Fusion Strategy suggests.
The analysis by Fusion boss Steve Allen was driven by the imminent launch of Breakfast on Ten in 11 days time.
Over the summer the gap between Sunrise and Today shrank to an average of just 31,000 viewers across the metro markets – compared to the average across the official 2011 ratings period of 41,000. The gap is the smallest since Sunrise overtook Today in 2005. It was at its widest in 2006 when the gap was 206,000.
The official ratings period began this week. Yesterday Sunrise won by just 12,000 viewers – by 379,000 to 367,000, (although it was a much wider 75,000 the day before). The shows are also close in the key advertising demographics.
Allen said of Breakfast’s entry into the battle: “Anything short of around 100,000 All People and 50,000 16-54 will not be success.”
However, unless Breakfast pulls almost the same number of viewers from both Sunrise and Today, the show’s presence is likely to tip the balance in the favour of one or other of the two existing players.
Meanwhile, Allen said that Nine’s launch of Mornings with Sonia Kruger was a moderate success, and had badly hurt Ten’s The Circle.
He said: “Early signs are good with first week up 17+% All People on the same time last year, and nearly 55% 16-54. This week is leading in the same direction, if anything a lot stronger. It’s very early days but is looking like a smart move – we were skeptical initially, so, proven wrong.”
The main victim of Mornings was The Circle on Ten, said Allen, which is relying on the launch of Breakfast to give it an audience to inherit. Yesterday it rated just 56,000 to 187,000 for Seven’s The Morning Show and Nine’s Mornings’ 104,000.
He said: “Major damage, really major damage, at this point, to The Circle and we can now see desperately needs the Breakfast lead in to make it less vulnerable.”
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Please can someone else in this industry become a ‘Media Analyst’?
I am so tired of Mr Allen (smart as he is) being roll-out again and again by all and sundry.
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Steve Allen is the Antony Green of media.
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I am no porgrammer , but one would think that when TEN launch thier new morning show( which will make 4 breakfast programs including the ABC) this cluttered and fragmented space will inhibit quality programming that it is setting out to achieve. All stations will lose audience and therefore revenue, which will then impact on the resources for the program. They already talk about the same content and replay it several times within the program.
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Critical posters,
Steve Allen has done the analysis. Just say thanks.
The reason that the same people get “roll out” is due to being in a journos roladex, not self promotion.
JV
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