Analyst: Ratings failures pushing desperate TV networks into unprecedented schedule changes
Nine and Ten face their advertising share being “decimated” if they fail to pull their audiences up in the next few weeks, analyst Steve Allen has predicted.
In a briefing issued to the market this afternoon, Allen – boss of Fusion Strategy – said: “Both are under extraordinary pressure to lift ratings before ‘upfront’ annual negotiations begin in November. If either face negotiations with present performance, their cash cow primary channels will be decimated or plundered.”
Nine had a particularly poor start to the year, although The Block helped it to get its performance back on track somewhat. Recent weeks have also seen a decent performance from Underbelly on Sundays.
Ten did well while Masterchef was on, but The Renovators has underperformed badly.
According to Allen’s analysis of OzTam figures, the peaktime audience in the key demographic of 16-54 year olds is down by 18.1% for Nine and 21.68% for Ten so far this year. Seven has been the main beneficiary.
Allen said: “There are an unprecedented number of changes to programming and formats due to the extreme pressure Nine and Ten are under in the ratings game.”
Describing Nine’s scheduling as looking “desperate”, he added: “As a consequence Nine and Ten Management and Programmers are skittish in the extreme.”
Allen also compiled a list of shows which have experienced ratings failure this year from all three networks:
Allen concluded: “Nine, and Ten, main channel, have a massive amount of work to do to even make a dent in turning things around. If you hold your breath you’ll asphyxiate.”
Tim Burrowes founded Mumbrella in 2008. He worked on Mumbrella until 2021. At various points he was editor, content director and editor-at-large.
Linkedin
The fact that “The Renovators” has been accidentally refereed to as “The Block” in this article pretty much sums up 10’s problems post Masterchef.
User ID not verified.
And the worst of it is – I’ve made that mistake before too.
cheers, Tim – Mumbrella
I wouldn’t have considered Hamish & Andy a ratings failure, it wins it’s time slot and key demos. Having half the program last week low due to xfactor lag is hardly a failure
User ID not verified.
Set out as bluntly (and cruelly) as that, it’s no wonder viewers. Lazy concepts and cynical exploitation to get every last cent out of a product (yes, you, Dick Wolf!) And I’m not talking formats. It’s silly to talk of the death of reality TV when The Block and Masterchef performed as well as they have
Twenty two real life and dramatic cop/lawyers/investigators programs? Four versions of Law and Order (and I’m not sure how L & O SVU escaped the list)? Surely it doesn’t take a consumer psychologist to work out what’s going on there. The number of bromance formats (NCIS: LA; Suits; The Defenders, Burn Notice; Hawaii Five O (known to me as NCIS: Honolulu); Top Gear Australia; and Hamish and Andy). And shows with concepts thinner than soup made solely from water (Same Name).
And the prospects can’t be much better. Surely MasterChef has maybe two turns left before it runs out of puff (Seriously, from the promos of the new Junior MC, I can’t tell if they’re last year’s kids or this year’s). Underbelly? What’s left? Underbelly: Rum Rebellion? And there can’t be all that many more banks and coaches to rob, and horses to steal, and evil laughs from Jeremy Sims in Packed to the ‘Rangers; sorry, Wild Boys.
With due credit to William Goldman (who said it of Hollywood): nobody knows anything. Too often thought to refer to simple ignorance, instead, it’s more like, who the hell can pick a winner before a concept is turned into a winner. Sometimes, you take a leap. Surely a program like The Gruen Transfer proves that. But always respect your audience. And that’s not been readily apparent in this year’s crop of duds.
User ID not verified.
But where are the audiences going? It’s not like 7’s numbers have skyrocketed. Are they simply watching other FTA channels or diverting to other platforms such as cable and web?
User ID not verified.
Anon … the biggest chunk is going to the FTAs digital channels which are siphoning off audience share. Pay TV is also getting a look in.
User ID not verified.