Smart data, friction, and the power of prediction
Marketing measurement should be viewed as a creative act, rather than falling into a yes culture. Jordan Taylor-Bartels, CEO of commercial mix modelling company Prophet, explains how data should challenge and provoke organisations to look into the future with clearer insights.
The modern organisation has a curious relationship with its own data. Many are drowning in it, yet few use it to do more than track last quarter’s performance.
Marketing measurement, in particular, seems obsessed with dashboards that confirm what we already suspect, rather than inspiring us to break new ground. As a result, decision-makers chase the approval of the board or the status quo, while ignoring insights that might actually illuminate a different path.
Yet friction is essential to real progress. Look at Netflix, which once mailed DVDs (at least in the US) to customers and faced friction internally when pivoting to streaming. Some executives worried about cannibalising existing revenues, while others warned that customers were not “ready.” But that spark of conflict forced Netflix to confront the limits of its own assumptions and move toward a model that reshaped an entire industry. Without friction, Netflix might still be a postage-based business rather than the media behemoth we know today.
Prophet is built on the premise that data should provoke us. It should not just record what happened, but challenge the status quo by showing where future opportunity lies. That often means confronting the comfortable illusions we create about our own performance. The friction can be unsettling when advanced analytics suggest a go-to-market strategy is off course, or when real-time insights reveal that a beloved campaign is actually underperforming. But this is exactly what organisations need if they want to achieve any kind of significant breakthrough.
Jordan Taylor-Bartels
Yet in many corporate cultures, friction is the first thing we eliminate. We crave team unity and the superficial camaraderie of the Monday meeting, where everyone nods along, arms folded in agreement. As Winston Churchill once said, “A kite rises highest against the wind, not with it.” This is more than a stirring aphorism – it is a reminder that pushing against resistance can actually lift us to new heights. People avoid tough conversations or contrarian data. The result is derivative, short-sighted decision-making.
Marketing measurement should be viewed as a creative act. Creativity flourishes when you let rigorous data spark new questions, not just confirm old answers. It is the difference between measuring “growth” to impress stakeholders and forecasting real-world outcomes so that you can shape them. When your data science team is allowed to surface uncomfortable truths, you start to see where the real opportunities lie. Suddenly, you are not just pleasing a few executives, but positioning the organisation for a future your competitors have not even considered.
There is a popular narrative in business that innovation requires being a “yes” culture, but history suggests otherwise. Andy Grove at Intel famously embraced a sort of productive paranoia, an environment where conflict was not feared but harnessed. That tension forced the company to shift away from memory chips, which had long been its bread and butter, toward microprocessors. A lot of people inside Intel resisted that transition. For a while, it was messy. Yet without that internal friction, Intel might never have become a leader in the microprocessor market.
Similarly, forecasting forces us to confront friction at every step. It asks questions like, “What if this product, in which we have invested millions, has no real audience?” or “What if the channel we ignored is actually our best path to profitability?” If you are only using data to confirm what you already believe, you are not really forecasting; you are cherry-picking. Real forecasting can tell you that the thing you love is not working, or that the thing you dislike is your best bet. That is where the discomfort – and real progress – begins.
So, how do we operationalise that friction?
First, recognise that data is not always going to validate your favourite ideas. Let it challenge you.
Second, use robust, advanced methods that aren’t just the Bayesian mathematics seen in most MMMs today to identify real signals, rather than relying on convenient but shallow metrics.
Third, be prepared to pivot when the data says so. The hardest moment for any leadership team is admitting that the project they championed is not worth further investment. But pivoting on the basis of solid analytics is far more productive than doubling down on a doomed approach.
Friction needs to be integrated right into the process. By connecting thousands of operational, marketing, and economic data points, we often uncover insights that force difficult internal conversations. This is not an accident; it is an objective. If data merely rubber-stamps what you already suspect, you are not getting your money’s worth. Real insight unsettles. It begs a deeper look. It might even point out that your competitor’s once-laughable approach is gathering steam. You can ignore that friction, or you can harness it.
Far too often, the corporate environment punishes those who deviate from the script, who point out that the emperor’s clothes are a tad transparent. Ralph Waldo Emerson warned that the world will “whip you with its displeasure” if you decline to conform. Yet true innovation, whether it be in marketing, technology, or any venture, is built by those who willingly endure the lash of public or internal doubt. Netflix endured doubts. Intel faced big internal struggles. You will too, if you are genuinely striving to outpace your sector.
In the end, friction is not a sign that something is wrong; it is often a sign you are on the verge of something better. A marketing strategy that coasts smoothly along without a single ruffled feather or disturbing data point is probably (don’t yell at me) just maintaining the status quo. For organisations serious about growth and differentiation, that status quo is the riskiest place to be. Embrace the tough insights. Let the data speak plainly, even if you dislike its message. Because once you do, you will find yourself ahead of those who cling to polite consensus.
Businesses and marketers need to have a willingness to let data cut through the corporate pleasantries. The friction that emerges is not a bug; it is a feature. Cutting-edge analytical tools allow you to see the future and the unvarnished honesty that compels you to act on it. If you can meet that friction head-on, you will reap the rewards of building a truly forward-looking marketing function. If not, do not be surprised when the next Netflix or Intel shows up and makes your carefully curated dashboards look like old headlines.
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good view, and (actually) really well articulated – but feels like this needs to be said one-to-one to ceo’s not just an opinion piece on mumbrella…
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