Are we in the middle of a Facebook bubble?

Facebook should try to actually become a country.

Have popular elections of minister positions, and be the first “country without borders”….but an interesting socio-experiment.

Dear Everyone who likes to write about the internet,

Please stop saying “bubble”. Just because there was a dot com bubble one time, does not mean that everything associated with people getting over excited about something online is a bubble. Everyone over the age of 30 seems to now love saying “bubble” as a way to dismiss having to learn a new media channel. Most people/agencies are just shit at using social media. It’s a channel not a brand, *enter scene from Annie Hall with marshall mcluhan*.

Signed sincerely,

People who read blogs from “industry professionals”

Good article and all true – as an FYI, Facebook just announced they’ve hit 750 million users.

Is it really a bubble, or as you say just a lack of practical understanding in how to successfully launch and maintain a highly engaged online community?

If there is a bubble, I would be more inclined to say it’s a bubble full of social media experts that are swamping the market at present with average strategic recommendations that result in average facebook page presences, rather than facebook itself – which has over 750M active users now, as mentioned by Zuckerberg himself during the Skype integration announcement a fortnight ago.

How are you measuring the success of the Australian pages that you mention on this article?

2011 seems to be the year every last brand has “got” that they need to have a presence / surface some web content in facebook.

I think they problem we’re seeing is just one of sophistication. Most first steps in a new media/channel/technology are hesitant and cautious – we shouldn’t be surprised if the restructuring of Customer Service or Marketing teams to support the facebook or social channels lags behind the first few experimental efforts that companies often use to test the waters and make a business case.

Good question Dan. I’d like to know some details of the “many” businesses questioning Facebook’s ROI, and how they, and the author, measure that success. Cause I don’t see many articles with the headline ‘social media measurement – finally cracked!”. the only statistic quoted here is an out of date one about how many users facebook has – the rest just seems like subjective observation and/or conjecture.

I’m with Derek from the Internet on this one.

Completely agree with the 3rd and 4th last paragraphs.

Huge numbers, are they real? It would be nice to know how many ‘active’ facebook accounts there are and whilst were at it, how would you define ‘active’? And have there been any any changes in the life of an average facebook account? Seems to me that numbers, like all statistics, can either be used for illumination or for support, which classification does the 750 million fall into I wonder..

For what it’s worth, I think that one of the reasons that businesses are cautious about using Facebook for their marketing is that when it doesn’t work, you look twice as bad because everyone (including clients/potentials etc) can see how well you performed.
For example, if you run a promotion through old school channels and very few people engage, it’s not the end of the world, you can still be fall back on other successes.
Run a promotion through Facebook and everyone can actually see your engagement numbers. Even though your brand may be pulling out aces everywhere else, clients can take it as a clear sign that you are not all you say you are.

What I’m saying is that the transparency means that we can’t take chances anymore, because one bad venture can leave cause a bad moon to rise over everything else you do, successful or not.

@Derek – for condescension to work you, the condescender needs to be right. Unfortunately, you’re not. A bubble is a perfectly apt way to discuss anything that’s overhyped through irrational exuberance, whether online or not. You might have heard of the Dutch tulip bubble, for example. The current social media bubble would still be called a bubble whether or not there was a dotcom bubble. And James never argued that FB was not a channel, so i don’t know which shadow you’re jumping at there. People who actually been around a bit don’t dismiss new channels – but we are getting sick of the hype being peddled by vested interests, particular ‘digital media strategists’ who routinely display a complete ignorance of every other communications channel.

@sven – Thank you for that quick lesson in/example of condescension, furthermore thank you for alerting me to the historic events surrounding the ever relevant Dutch Tulip bubble. In light of your comments I would like to retract my previous statement and arrive at the only logical thesis that can then be derived: People, we are in the middle of a “people saying we are in a bubble” bubble. People with vested interests in the failure of new media seem to be peddling the term with almost as much unfounded enthusiasm as every half-educated marketer bustling for a facebook competition app, so “logically” it must be a bubble.

@Derek WOW, this is deep! …”People with vested interests in the failure of new media seem”….
If I understood the author, he didn’t assume a position of internet and new media failure.
I guess this go way beyond simple statements from marketers or people with vested interested in the failure of new media. It’s a matter of Economic balance.
Economic bubble can be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values. Now, a business evaluated in 65 Billion dollars is or isn’t a economic bubble,
Peace,

Interesting read…

Sounds to me like companies shouldn’t be complaining about returns on investment if there’s a consistent lack of resources being devoted to FB pages.

Either those (minimal) resources are damn expensive, or there ain’t much in the way of investment in the first place.

I think the base assumption that Facebook pages are going to (or even should aim to) turn into communities might actually be the false premise.

There is plenty of room for brands to have fairly low touch Facebook pages, and it might even be appropriate for most. Keep it simple until you really have a brand message or belief that can possibly support something even resembling a “community”. Brands just have to align their expectations with the effort they will put into it.

@sven well put! Way too many instant experts trumpeting their way as the best way (or only way). As for bubbles… we’ve had several in dotcom. While the 00s hit hardest, don’t forget 97/98… when the likes of PointCast were massively value then just as quickly devalued.

re: ROI of Facebook and other social media — would love to see reports on this

I agree with James’ take on this issue. Some companies are jumping onto Facebook for the wrong reasons – for example, their global HQ told them to do it, or because some ‘expert’ said it’s crucial to their SEO (both reasons I have heard first-hand).

They have no idea how time- and resource-intensive the management of FB (or any other community) actually is, so it ends up looking half-arsed. You don’t need any fancy ROI metrics to prove that – simply cruise around the moribund pages of any number of small, medium or large companies (but I’m not naming any here!).

James must be too busy off setting up successful Facebook pages to respond to our questions and feedback. Perhaps this is why Facebook programs fail?

>I seriously hope this is not the start of a Facebook bubble.

I seriously hope it is, since there is nothing more noxious than being forced to visit some company’s “Facebook page” to get information/a discount/whatever, rather than a proper, open, accessible independent website.

Anyone noticed that really cool people aren’t on Facebook and really successful people aren’t on Linked In.

@ anonymous. No.

The fundamental problem with companies relying on Facebook & any other social networking site as their only ‘go to’ digital location is that they don’t own it. It’s a brave/foolish organisation that puts all its digital relationship marketing eggs in someone else’s basket.

Recently a smart person said to me “there was a time when the best social media was doing a great tv ad because everyone would talk about it”.

As much as things change, they stay the same.

@Anonymous (comment 20.)

I have no idea?

I do not use either..?

maybe its just that most brands arent interesting enough for a facebook page. i would not ‘fan’ my toothpaste. thats just stupid.

I think it’s crazy that companies are promoting their Facebook page instead of their own website address. I noticed that the golden arches have been doing it in their latest TV ads too. It just seems so stupid… Promote your Facebook page via your website, not the other way around!

@Tradesman, social media is more powerful than a traditional website. It’s social. If I like Golden Arches, all of my friends are going to know about it. If I visit their website, my friends wont know about it.

When you over your livelihood to facebook you also hand over a good degree of control. I’ve heard some really sad tales of lost communities of thousands of FB fans that were built up over the past few years and just flew out the window once FB did ugrades. It poses some sticky questions for clients that not all will have thought about.

@Tim Well, maybe not all of your friends. Just those that are on facebook, that also happen to catch that little “Tim likes McDonalds” update on their stream, provided that it actually appears on their stream at all. So all up, a bit less than all my friends…and in the end, what impact does it have on these friends?

Don’t get me wrong, I get what you’re saying, but think it might be slightly overstated.

Out of interest… who are the companies that have done facebook really well?

Yes – lets go to more effort where people are spending less time and there is less chance of them actually engaging with you. In fact, less chance of noticing you.

It should instead be asked – does Facebook fall into that mix of opportunities for the people you want to connect with – if the answer is no, it’s no. If it’s yes it’s that simple.

I once heard a very old adman say that when TV first started running ads, simply being there was enough. It was modern and cool.

Pretty soon though, clients realised they’d have to invest in the actual content, to communicate/stand for something/show value/make an offer/make consumers interested etc.

Is history repeating?

*** … starts to whistle …. I’m Forever Blowing Bubbles (and I’m not talking about a certain famous chimpanzee) ***

A mate of mine liked a festival page on Facebook. I got notified of that and was interested why? So, I clicked on to the festival page and discovered that there was an early bird ticket sale. I liked the line up, I saw that a few of my mates were attending, so I bought some tickets. Pow! Bam! Wham, thank you Abraham.

The fact that this festival had a Facebook presence resulted in me making a purchase there and then. (Shopping can often be very spontaneous and emotional…)

I can’t believe there are Facebook doubters on this thread? Hey, it is not EVERYTHING. however, Facebook can certainly help to make sales, generate ROI for certain campaigns(.)

For all the doubters – wake up and get using it; you will soon see how it works and I am sure you are bright enough to figure out what could aid your clients on FB.

I wonder if it is the traditional line tow crew who rely on production costs to make ridiculous amounts of profit; as a result of pushing TV / print and radio…? Hey ho, if it is they will soon begin to suffer.

Facebook is a channel and like any channel it has strengths and weaknesses. It’s good for some strategies and activities and not for others. It works well if you know how to use it and not so well if you don’t.

Hold on…he’s an Ops manager at an interactive agency and he got the number of Facebook users wrong by 150 million?

Cadbury Australia have 100,000+ dedicated chocolate fans by giving away party packs that probably cost them $20 a pop. Dedicated, fun and freebies maketh for simple social media strategy.

Simon
http://www.TwoCentsGroup.com.au

Setting up a Facebook Page is easy. The bigger issue that has already been touched on is there is often a lack of planning and resources dedicated to maintaining the page.

With increasing media fragmentation, brands need to be where their customers area. Facebook can be a great vehicle but marketers need to understand that interaction is two way not way.

The most successful pages encourage interaction and give content worth commenting on. Questions and images invite comment – telling and selling doesn’t.

Seeing as this is an internet forum, why has no one complained about the Carbon Tax on here?

You’re all tits for talking way too much about a completely pointless article in the first place.