Mumbrella predictions for 2016 (and how we fared with our 2015 predictions)

Each year the Mumbrella team makes a number of predictions about the year ahead. Below you can finds some rather conservative predictions along with a couple of bold ones (yes, we know we’re going out a limb on some of these). You can also see how we did on our 2015 predictions as well. 

Sky News1. Sky News to appear on one of Ten’s free-to-air TV channels

The tie-up between Foxtel and Ten will see a newly-News Corp controlled Sky News broadcast on One, aping the successful model pioneered by Sky News in the UK.

Likelihood: 8/10

2. Quickflix finally goes under

We’ve used the adjective ‘troubled’ so much with streaming service Quickflix it’s been banned in the office. But the Australian pioneer of streaming will finally disappear in 2016, after failing to complete a tie-up with a Chinese content firm and having its stock put in a near-permanent trading halt in 2015, amid dwindling user numbers.

Likelihood: 9/10



3. Kim Williams and Mark Scott to join Google to setup TV channel

After missing out on the ABC job Kim Williams re-emerges at Google where he is tasked with setting up an new TV-focussed content division for the search giant. His first appointment is ABC MD Mark Scott.

Likelihood: 1/10

survivor4. Survivor is the surprise hit of the year

While many scoffed at Channel Ten’s decision to bring back the Survivor brand as being unoriginal the new show, launched off the back of another successful I’m a Celebrity, gets traction pulling decent audience shares and topping a million for its first and last shows.

Likelihood: 7/10

David Nobay, gun5. Nobay wins a Cannes Lion with new agency Marcel

David Nobay comes roaring back to form with new Publicis ‘hotshop’ Marcel, producing some high art and award winning work for only client Lion.

Likelihood: 2/10

6. Seven gets bashed for Olympics coverage

sevenWhile the Seven Network is planning ambitious coverage for the Olympics, including extensive streaming, viewers are still not happy that they cannot watch every second of every event on the primary channel, leading to social media outrage.

Likelihood: 8/10

captain risky facebook post7. Captain Risky dies in horrific accident

In an ironic and attention-grabbing end to the campaign Budget Direct kills off the character as aliens interrupt his most hair-brained stunt to date – jumping from space without a parachute.

Likelihood: 3/10

8. Stoner Sloth to be the surprise hit of the awards circuit

stoner sloth facebookDespite grabbing numerous negative headlines Saatchi & Saatchi’s Stoner Sloth campaign for the NSW Government is the darling of the awards circuit, with one Cannes Lions judge describing it as the “perfect post-modern and subversive use of government money to campaign for the legalisation of cannabis”.

Likelihood: 1/10

How did we do in 2015?

Screen Shot 2014-12-25 at 10.20.44 am1.I’m a Celebrity a surprise hit – CORRECT

The Big Bash League gives Ten a strong start to 2015, and this year the constant repetition of ads for I’m a Celebrity plus strategic leaks about who will be appearing give the show a debut audience of 1.4m, falling to 900,000 for the regular shows, but comfortably winning its timeslot for the struggling network.

2. Nine and Fairfax merge – WRONG

Last year was predicted to be the year for mergers and acquisitions, but this year will see the real activity in the market as laws are relaxed. Nine and Fairfax will formalise the relationship started with the Stan partnership by moving in together full time creating the Nine Fairfax Entertainment and News Co, specialising in current affairs and sports coverage across platforms.

Likelihood: 2/10

hamish-and-andy-234x190-234x1563. Hamish and Andy return tops Drive time but Today Network stations still struggle – CORRECT

Southern Cross Austereo is banking on the return of Hamish Blake and Andy Lee to the Drive show in July to bolster its beleaguered and newly re-named Today’s Hit network, and the pair deliver the ratings boost they hoped for for the slot, but their delay until the middle of the year means other shows already have the loyalty of listeners rusted on for 2015 and it doesn’t have the halo effect they were hoping for.

Likelihood: 7/10

4. Australian Cannes Lions Press entries plummet – CORRECT

There were a distinct drop in the number of entries in the print category at Spikes in Singapore in September, with entries down some 75 per cent on the year before. We’re willing to bet a similar phenomenon might also occur in the south of France this year.

Likelihood: 6/10

telstra5. Telstra pitches for media and creative – WRONG

The big agency pitch of 2015 sees Telstra look to streamline its agency provision under the stewardship of Jo Pollard as CMO and in the face of resurgent competition from Optus and Vodafone. Media comes down to a battle between OMD and UM, whilst creative sees The Monkeys and Whybin\TBWA battle it out for lead agency duties as the telco slims down its roster.

Likelihood: 5/10

6. Rupert Murdoch steps back from News Corp and hands reins to Lachlan – WRONG(ish)

With print assets struggling and amid mounting pressure from activist shareholders Rupert Murdoch finally formally passes the reins for News Corp to his son Lachlan, who signals a new era by acquiring data-focussed assets for the company, putting more focus on the digital elements of the company. 

Likelihood: 3/10 

7. The return of Harold Mitchell to media as chairman of a media owner – WRONG

Last year we (wrongly) predicted that Harold Mitchell would launch a new agency this year. That didn’t eventuate but Harold has been no shrinking violent as chairman of FreeTV and we wouldn’t be surprised if 2015 sees one of the networks reward with the chairmanship of one their boards? Southern Cross Austereo perhaps?

Likelihood: 3/10

8. M&C Saatchi launches media division – WRONG

Having the biggest strategy department in Australia M&C Saatchi manages to persuade one of its major clients to streamline their servicing and hand them the media planning and buying element of the business. M&C acquires Slingshot Media to handle the transition and bolster its offering. 

Likelihood: 8/10



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