Significant seven: Predictions for 2012
Over the next few days, we are publishing highlights from the Mumbrella Annual.
1. Ten’s Breakfast boon
Ten’s new morning show Breakfast proves a hit thanks to Kiwi presenter Paul Henry, whose gung-ho style is like a bucket of water in the face of a waking nation. Many watch out of morbid curiosity to see if he’ll make any racist gaffes. The show takes viewers from Seven’s Sunrise, and Nine’s Today finds itself on top as Logie winner Karl Stefanovic proves the most sufferable option.
Likelihood rating: 7/10
2. The Herald and The Age shrink
The boss of Fairfax’s metro division told Mumbrella in June that he would not be surprised if The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age dropped the broadsheet format. But he didn’t give a timeframe for the switch. Sooner rather than later would be sensible. Expect commuter-friendly editions by late 2012.
Likelihood rating: 8/10
3. Photon sells agencies to WPP
Rumours reported in October by the AFR that Photon would sell its agency assets to WPP come true. BMF and BWM become the unlikely stablemates of struggling once-greats The Campaign Palace and GPY&R Sydney.
Likelihood rating: 7/10
4. Glamour launches
As a counter attack to the launch of Elle and Women’s Fitness, NewsLifeMedia introduces handbag-sized women’s mag Glamour – a smash when it launched in the UK a decade ago. The editor of ACP’s Grazia Kellie Hush steps into the hotseat at Glamour.
Likelihood rating: 6/10
5. Leo Burnett bags McDonald’s
DDB’s work for Macca’s has been ordinary for some time now (Warney’s Chicken McBites anyone?). After getting one hand on the business in October, Leo Burnett pulls out all the stops in 2012 and produces the burger brand’s best work for years. DDB loses one of its four ‘pillar’ accounts, but “hot little sister” Mango holds on to PR duties.
Likelihood rating: 6/10
6. Johnny Vaughan comes to Oz
Brit jock Johnny Vaughan moves to Australia to team up with former Capital Radio colleague Paul Jackson at DMG Radio. Vaughan departed 95.8 Capital FM after almost eight years as the London station’s breakfast DJ in November.
Likelihood rating: 5/10
7. The Monkeys sells to Saatchis
The Monkeys founders did not succumb to the advances of their former employer Saatchi & Saatchi this year – and did not enjoy the courtship. But with new Saatchi’s boss Michael Rebelo in charge, they jump back into bed.
Likelihood rating: 2/10
This list first appeared in the Mumbrella Annual, which is currently on sale priced at $10 for access to the digital edition or $20 for both print and digital access.- Both can be ordered through Realview, via this link
Happy New Year everyone. Would be a shame to the the SMH and Age shrink!!
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1. Fairfax shareprice drops below 50c, company becomes insolvent.
2. The Australian tries to hide its collapse in page views.
3. Hyper-local amateur news forums take off as MSM rationalises/centralises content creation.
4. Free-to-Air TV ratings continue to decline. Younger demographs virtually disappear.
5. Australian use of VPNs to conceal file-sharing and thwart geo-blocking booms.
6. Iphones and Facebook take-up reverses. Flood of users to Android platforms. Facebook becomes “uncool” and is associated with push-marketing and baby-boomers.
7. More advertisers finally notice what Big Tobacco realised long ago – the biggest entertainment industry in the world is Video Games.
Happy New Year Ad peeps
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Right on Ann (#1)
Nothing beats a saturday morning broadsheet, a coffee and a plum danish!
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Az seems remarkably prescient in his thoughts.
Not sure about 3, or the iPhone bit of 6, but the rest have been overlooked for some time.
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The SMH has already shrunk to the size of my iPad.
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Agree with Az and absolutely do not agree with Grant.
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@adgrunt and @drig
Have you lot considered buying the rights to a piece of intellectual property, say an older song or film or w/e… Prob. work best with an older movie.
Embedding an ad in it and then releasing it as a torrent with permission to share (asking that the ad be left in).
You’ll generate enormous goodwill and publicity from the act alone and the torrent will self-perpetuate, so no ongoing costs once you publish.
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If Glamour gets their pricing right (i.e. under $5) they have the potential to not just kill Elle, but also put the final nail in Grazia’s coffin, while Cosmo Cleo and InStyle shrink even more.
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