Stop future gazing and start taking data lessons from history
Richard Shotton argues that we shouldn’t allow our fixation with the future crowd out an interest in the past, because there’s a lot of lessons to be learned from history – even when it comes to data.
The trade press overflows with interesting predictions about the future of advertising.
But there’s a problem.
Experts, marketing or otherwise, have an awful record of predictions. Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania, ran a 20-year study that analysed 82,361 forecasts from 284 experts. He found that their predictions were as likely to be wrong, as right. In his memorable phrase, the average pundit fared no better than ‘a dart-throwing monkey’.
Another great read Richard.
Great. I’m just waiting for the ‘digital is different’ mumbo jumbo next…
This is everything. Mass communications are most effective when based in fundamental human truths and behaviours.
Fabulous article and a timely reminder of what is important.
Bravo Richard.
An excellent article. I classify that in the “I wish I had written that” category.
A knowledge of history produces better, more skilful and well-rounded business people, who are more likely to bring a big picture perspective to the issues they face.
Indeed, exposure to history makes one shrewder, more mature and insightful and enhances judgement and decision-making skills.
As US 26th president and intellectual action man Teddy Roosevelt said, the more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.
English author John Stow, in his ‘Annals of England’ published in 1580, wrote that a knowledge of history ‘makes you wise’.
The number of history graduates in top business positions is remarkable.
Bob Reid headed up Shell’s global downstream oil operations, covering exploration, refining, logistics and transportation Reid didn’t have an engineering PhD to manage this highly technical area, but a history degree from St Andrews University.
Brian Moynihan, CEO and now Chairman of America’s second biggest bank, Bank of America, is a Brown University history graduate.
Former Hewlett Packard CEO, and US president aspirant, Carly Fiorina, American Express boss Ken Chenault and IBM chief executive Sam Palmisano are all history graduates.
Ian Thomas, former Boeing Australia president, has, no less, a PhD in history.
More at http://www.historywow.com/business