GroupM predicts global advertising recovery led by digital growth of 8.2% in 2020

GroupM’s latest Global Media Forecast, titled ‘This Year Next Year’, suggests that the advertising market will end up better off in 2020 than previously predicted.

After a June forecast of an 11.9% global decline, new figures suggest that the market will only fall 5.8% this year on an underlying basis, and excluding US political advertising.

GroupM Media Trends Forecast

Digital advertising spend had an excellent 2020 despite the global pandemic, and is expected to grow by 8.2% this year (excluding US political activity).

The report suggests that digital advertising for pure-play media owners like Amazon, Facebook and Google will be 61% of advertising by 2021, more than doubling where it sat in 2015.

Despite the global market falling sharply from 2019 when it experienced 8.7% growth, the resiliency of digital advertising saw GroupM forecast 12.3% growth year on year in 2021.

While the figures in the report aren’t specifically for Australia, GroupM Australia and New Zealand CEO Mark Lollback pointed to local areas of growth and a sense of optimism moving into 2021 for the company’s local business.

“Locally we saw the acceleration of trends like eCommerce which has drawn closer ties between marketing activity and purchasing as well as growth in BVOD audiences,” he said.

“Despite the challenges, within the disruption of this year there have been many opportunities to connect with consumers in different ways.

Some of those challenges came in areas like outdoor including digital out of home, which is estimated to decline 31%, before a partial rebound of 18% growth in 2021.

TV advertising will decline by 15.1% (exclusive of US political advertising) before growing 7.8% next year.

GroupM Forecast By Region

“Understanding the role media channels play overall in delivering objectives and enabling clients to maximise flexibility around consumption trends in the short term, alongside long-term marketing goals, are necessary as we move out of 2020 to 2021,” Lollback added.

“We have a sense of optimism going into 2021 and if we continue to lean into technology and the talented specialists in our agencies, and work closely with our media partners,  we can continue to deliver outcomes for or clients and help drive the Australian economy forward.”


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