Predicting the outcome of a campaign

In an opinion piece that first appeared in Encore, Adam Ferrier says while there are numerous tools for testing ads, they have limitations and he’s looking for a better solution.

Adam FerrierI recently wrote an article suggesting that no-one really knows for certain if an ad or a campaign is going to be successful or not – none of us.

Now the good folk at Millward Brown have Link, a copy-testing tool which has many vocal detractors (such as all its benchmarks being born in the passive world of communications). Ipsos have the (weirdly) named ASI Big*Idea.

The neuromarketing salesmen would have us believe they know how the brain thinks. The executive creative director has their almighty confidence and ego shouting ‘make this or else’. And let’s not forget the humble qualitative researcher with their flippy book of cartoon images.

Interestingly most of the people above think there method is right and the others are wrong.

Now, I was telling a client the other day about what I perceive to be the limitations of quantitative advertising pre-testing and he challenged me. He said: “Adam, you may be right, and I may be prepared to agree with you. But show me a better way. Show me how I can have confidence that it’s likely the idea or campaign that is being put forward will work.” Anyone want to help me answer the question (see what I do for you Gav)?

Does anyone know if an advertising campaign idea will work? What’s the best way to determine likelihood of success?

Adam Ferrier is a consumer psychologist and the founder of Naked Communications.

Encore issue 25This story first appeared in the weekly edition of Encore available for iPad and Android tablets. Visit encore.com.au for a preview of the app or click below to download.



Sign up to our free daily update to get the latest in media and marketing