The 632,650 people who will decide the election
With only days to go until Australia heads to the polls, Oliver Rees crunches the data to find out where the parties should focus their last campaigning, in a piece that first appeared in Encore.
Of all the major issues and topics this Federal election, it’s not carbon tax, leader-knifing, misogyny or boat people that holds the key. It’s crime. And footy.
Let me explain. We all inherently know that most elections are only decided by a small number of people, but in the era of advanced data analytics, we have the opportunity to understand exactly who those people are and how to reach them to make a real difference in this final week of the election.
Imagine for a moment instead of political parties these are brands and they are fighting like hell to reach quarterly sales targets and there’s only a week to go. What should they do?
We have incorporated and analysed data feeds from RDA Research (geodemographics), Australian Online Research (primary research), proprietary spatial interaction models, Nielsen Consumer and Media View, we find that 632,650 people will determine this election (i.e. represent possible customers).
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This represents 4.3 per cent of the voting population. These are the people who vote in the marginal polling booths within the marginal seats (a marginal seat being where the sitting member’s majority at the last election was less than the mean ‘swing’ over the last three elections). In this election, there are 19 marginal seats out of 150.
Treating these voters as potential shoppers, we look at the socio-economic status and their family orientation using spatial modelling over RDA Geosmart Segments, in much the same as retailers determine store locations. And we find that of these 600,0000 swinging voters, the largest proportion of them are within 11 of the 58 RDA Geosmart segments – groups that are part of ‘middle Australia’.
Of these, one group in particular stands out as being important – the ‘established mid-status suburban families’. They tend to be ‘mid status’ mature and younger families, live in three bedroom houses, have mature children living at home, have high outstanding mortgage balances, work as clerks and administrators, technicians and tradesmen. They generally have a secondary education and certificate level qualifications, two to three motor vehicles and pets. They have some financial investments, spend money generally on home maintenance and improvements, clothing and footwear, soft drinks, motor vehicles, confectionery, meat, household furnishings, beer and spirits, deli items, infant and children’s clothing, groceries, sports fees and recreation. They attend sporting events, cinema and circuses, participate in online social activity and socialise with neighbours, family members and friends. An example of an area that fits this description is south Penrith in Sydney.
They are by no means the only group. If you’re familiar with RDA segments you would also look at RDA Geosmart Segments such as ‘mature provincial suburban’ and ‘low status suburban’. But with days to go, looking for impact, you would target the ‘established mid-status suburban families’. Besides being the group most over-represented, they are also broadly indicative of the entire group of swinging voters so would also influence the other groups.
Using Nielsen Consumer and Media View data, our next step is to identify the media consumption preferences of this group. And guess what they watch – crime shows. Actually, on free-to-air television it’s homemaker shows such as Better Homes and Gardens and Gardening Australia, crime shows such as CSI and NCIS and The Footy Show. This is consistent with pay TV consumption, where they are more likely to watch The Crime and Investigation Network and the Lifestyle Channel. Online, they over-represent against Big Pond AFL.
The blackout period has now begun, but if I were the media manager for either major political party, I would have upweighted media spend on these channels dramatically. There may not be strong enough messages for Kevin to hold on to power, but this could be his only chance.
Oliver Rees is the CEO of Torque Data.
This first appeared in the weekly edition of Encore available for iPad and Android tablets. Visit encore.com.au for a preview of the app or click below to download.
So, target the cashed-up bogans?
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Yep – the CUB’s have pretty much swung the last 2 elections….and they look like doing it again.
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Cashed-up bogans or highly indebted bogans with their “high outstanding mortgage balances”?
It’s fantastic that only about 4.3% of electors really decide who governs. Democracy hey, gotta love it.
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