Politics to drive 2019 Australian ad spend, says Dentsu Aegis Network

Elections are to be the driver of the Australian ad industry in 2019, Dentsu Aegis Network claims in its latest advertising spend forecast.

The survey predicts Asia-Pacific will be the world’s fastest growing region with a 4.5% growth to US$220bn total spend while global spending will pickup 3.8% to US$625bn. According to DAN, Australia will see 2.4% growth to A$16.3bn for 2019 on the back of the upcoming Federal and NSW elections in the first half of the year.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to call an Australian Federal election before the end of May

While the NSW election is scheduled for March 23, the Federal election’s date is more complex with the timing at the government’s whim although it will probably be held before May 18.

DAN forecasts digital will also underpin local advertising revenue growth, with digital media spend expected to increase by 5.7% in 2019. Online video is expected to reach the A$2 billion market value by 2019 while mobile is expected to increase by 28% to a total advertising market value of A$5.3 billion in 2019, representing 62% of the total digital spend.

The forecasts are in contrast with recent SMI spending figures which reported digital spend declined through late 2018 with a 6.0% fall in November and 12.7% drop in October.

Across the Asia-Pacific, digital will make up nearly half the region’s ad spend with China having the highest digital share at 63%, followed by Australia’s 52%, New Zealand’s 49% and Hong Kong’s 48%.

Globally, digital ad-spend is forecast to grow by 12.0% in 2019 to reach US$254bn and make up 41% of worldwide spending.

Dentsu also forecasts digital will be the leading advertising channel in 26 of 59 markets analysed, with the US, Czech Republic, Malaysia and Singapore joining this list for the first time.

Other global trends in 2019 forecast by DAN include 19.2% growth in mobile, social media to pick up 18.4% and programmatic increasing 19.2% on the back of TV and digital-out-of-home adoption. Out of Home in general will show 4.0% growth on the back of increased digital spending.

TV ad-spend is forecast to grow 0.5% while radio will 1.1% in 2019 to reach USD37 billion – 6.0% of total spend, DAN claims.

Unfortunately for traditional print, Dentsu forecasts continuing decline with newspapers down 7.2% and Magazines declining 7.0% in 2019.


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