Dr Mumbo

It’s a matter of opinion (polls)

It’s the Monday after the election weekend before and the recriminations are well under way in the political world.

But while neither of the main political parties appears to be able to claim victory, in the media world it’s proving to be very different. At least when it comes to opinion polls.

Fairfax, for example, claimed ‘Fairfax/Ipsos poll closest’.

fairfax opinion poll

Not to be outdone, The Australian’s former editor Chris Mitchell this morning claims News Corp’s source “Newspoll was closest to the actual election result” in a treatise on the history of Newspoll.

news corp opinion poll

So who’s right?

Well courtesy of the complicated political machinations (and some heavy caveating) they both are.

Fairfax’s poll claimed victory by being the closest to predicting the two-party preferred vote, with 50.1% Liberals to 49.9% Labor.

And Mitchell points out the Newspoll result was closest to calling “primary support for the major parties on Saturday at 42% for the ­Coalition (it was 41.84 last night) and 35 for Labor (35.34)”.

Given the very public recent failures of opinion polls in the Queensland and Victorian State elections as well as the UK general election and Brexit vote Dr Mumbo reckons the pollsters are probably the only people breathing a sigh of relief this morning, with counting set to drag on for days.


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