The 80/20 View – the long read: How to accelerate the vaccine rollout with a data-led media planning approach

With most of the country in lockdown last week the mood was pretty bleak. For me it was lockdown #6, with Melbourne unfortunately being a city that has experienced more of this public health response than most cities in Australia.

With vaccines now being touted as the only way out of both lockdowns and the pandemic generally, how is it that in August of 2021 we are in this position? Seventeen months since the virus changed our lives here in Australia.

So, how did we get here? And how do we get out of it?

In this 80:20 view long read, I’ve put my media planning and analysis mind to work just like I would if I was tackling this as a challenge that was facing a client. And my view is that looking at this challenge through the eyes of a media planner can help work out a way to ensure the communications resource we deploy in the next three-six months is effective and pointed at the biggest challenges we face and the strongest drivers of vaccine take-up.

So, what’s the approach you’ve taken?

Lockdown weekends are pretty subdued affairs. I decided to spice mine up by spending Saturday and Sunday crunching publicly available data. I wanted to understand where the vaccine deployment program had been tracking since commencement, where we sat at a localised level, the barriers we have faced, what has enabled positive momentum and how past lessons can be applied to future work.

• Where have we been and what have we learnt?
• Where are we now?
• Addressing the characteristics of what isn’t working
• Enhancing the characteristics of what is working
• What is the best framework for a future approach
• The Path to 80% – the Pillars of future approach

1. Where have we been and what have we learnt?

If you had to soundtrack the past five months for the vaccine rollout, it would undoubtedly be Cher’s opus ‘If I Could Turn Back Time’ that would be the background track of the montage.

To understand the challenge we now face, what I did was plot vaccine volume delivered into the country, and vaccine administration to date. The best metric to judge success is something I’ve called ‘Vaccine Utilisation Ratio’.

The Vaccine Utilisation Ratio is a weekly figure which basically tracks cumulative vaccines administered over cumulative vaccines delivered. The concept is the aim we are all seeking is to get as many vaccines that we have into people’s arms as quickly as possible … so we want the Vaccine Utilisation Rate to be as close to 100% as possible.

Why? Because vaccines sitting in storage aren’t really helping anyone.

Source: Australian Government

Throughout March and towards the end of April this Vaccine Utilisation Ratio was trending upwards. More and more vaccinations were arriving and the aged care rollout was getting them into arms. It peaked during this period at 53%.

Then in May it went into free-fall – with the Vaccine Utilisation Ratio dropping 10 points during this time. In the first 2 weeks of May, vaccine administration per week dropped… and by the end of May it had only recovered to the same levels of late April. So what happened? What environmental factors caused this drop in utilisation? It’s important to analyse these to not repeat them.

There was a four week period in late March and into April that really impacted momentum.

On 31 March Prime Minister Morrison told reporters that the vaccine rollout “was not a race” which lowered urgency.

A week later ATAGI issues advice recommending that no one under 50 be administered AstraZeneca.

On 16 April Dr. Norman Swan, someone with one of the largest platforms on COVID in Australia, appeared on Q&A and outlined fears on blood clots were rational:

“As you get younger, your risk of dying of COVID diminishes quite rapidly. But also, the risk from the vaccine seems to go up. And where the balance seems to lie is about the age of 50. And you are well under 50. So for you, in a country where there’s not much COVID around, if you’re uncomfortable about that risk — which is probably around about 1-in-200,000 — you should wait.”

A week later ATAGI doubled down on their recommendation and put another statement out to the media.

Meanwhile in April, total cases Australia wide including returning travellers hovered around 460, with only one fatality.

This sequence of events caused two really significant data tracked moments.

The rapid emergence of search activity around blood clots. Google searches for blood clots and clots peaked in April, and this continued into May.

Source: Google Trends

At the same time, the vaccine surplus increased dramatically, moving from 859,000 surplus vaccines at the end of March, to 2.2 million by the end of April.

Source: Australian Government

At the same time, paid media encouraging citizens to get the vaccine was at very low levels. ABC host Rafael Epstein tweeted in late May a screen-grab of a Federal Government media plan around vaccine activity, which had very low activity across April and May.

What diff with more ads for the vax rollout?

Below *Exclusive* Federal Health Department’s advertising planner..

It shows how many ads, where etc

Wasteland last few months – few ads

Diff source “their comms are completely shit”

And that was said to me 10 days ago. pic.twitter.com/RJ2xAGsBHe

— Rafael Epstein (@Raf_Epstein) May 29, 2021

Source: Rafeal Epstein Twitter

So in April you have a perfect storm of challenging events. 1. A Prime Minister constantly on the record outlining that the vaccine rollout isn’t a race. 2. A country with minimal COVID, no lockdowns and life seemingly back to normal, being shown daily negative content about the AstraZeneca vaccine. 3. This daily barrage leads to concern around clotting, a concern that increased 3-4x over the course of the month and has enough momentum to sustain through May. 4. A vaccine surplus stockpile that grew by 150% over this period. 5. High volume and alarming comments from prominent medical professionals that were broadcast for days around the comparative dangers of a vaccine comparing it to close to zero COVID and supporting citizens waiting for a vaccine of their choice to become available. 6. A lack of media and advertising activity to tell a more balanced story around the vaccines that were sitting in storage, growing in volume.

When you pool these events, it’s reasonable to assume that collectively they could be interpreted by the community in a way that creates a lack of confidence in the government. Mixed public statements, low government communications, lack of urgency on vaccinations, alarming statements from government entities and high profile government broadcast staffers. This was beyond damaging? Why? Because confidence in government was found by the Melbourne Institute to be the single largest contributor to vaccine take-up.

Source: The Melbourne Institute

And the job only got harder in May.

Across May, the vaccine surplus went from 2.2 million to 5.4 million. That means 5.4 million vaccines sitting dormant. Not in arms. Across May we were adding to the stockpile between 500,000 and 946,000 vaccines every single week into surplus.

Source: Australian Government

Delta arriving on May 4 didn’t change the trend. Greg Hunt assuring everyone there would be enough MRNA vaccines on 20 May also didn’t help. And constantly low COVID cases across May and no fatalities in May also didn’t change the trend.

As Melbourne headed into lockdown #4 on 25 May, the vaccine utilisation ratio was at the lowest it had been since the aged care rollout commenced – at 43.6% – but as it extended out to 8 June the environment changed, and the data demonstrates this.

The Vaccine Utilisation Ratio moved over 50% on 13 June, and that week the vaccine stockpile actually decreased in volume despite a high volume of new supply arriving. Additionally, searches for clots began to decrease from this date across Google, and weekly additions to surplus sat between 100-300,000 … a far cry from 500-900,000 only a few weeks before.

Source: Australian Government

Sydney entered lockdown on 26 June, and Melbourne re-entered lockdown on 14 July. Throughout this period the Vaccine Utilisation Ratio has kept increasing, and as of 1 August it sat at 63%, a figure it has sat at since mid July.

What has changed in the environment? Pretty simple – majority of the country in lockdown, a rapid increase in cases, the return of fatalities, more media coverage and a change in tone from the federal and state government around the urgency of taking the vaccine that was available to the citizens. Plus more advertising, and a noticeable change in discussion around vaccine options.

Checking the search data, we can see the momentum. Searches for ‘vaccine’ have been increasing, especially over the past 45 days.

Source: Google Trends

Vaccine hesitancy has decreased significantly over the past six weeks. But 14 May marked the high point for vaccine hesitancy according to Melbourne University data (see below) – with 19.05% of people saying they were not willing to be vaccinated, and a further 16.5% who were undecided. By the end of July only 11% of people said they were unwilling to be vaccinated, with only 9.7% undecided.

Source: Melbourne Institute

It’s a positive effort but here’s the brief in a nutshell – as of 1 August we had seven million vaccine doses currently unused according to government supplied data.

These deployed would fully vaccinate 3.5 million people. Which is just under 17% of the current eligible 16+ population. If these were in arms right now, we would be looking at close to 60% of the eligible population being vaccinated … and we would be within reaching distance of the 70-80% figure to rollback lockdowns and begin to transition to a less impacted existence.

2. Where are we now?

As of 2 August 2021, 40.3% of Australians over 16 had been administered with at least one dose of a COVID vaccine.

But the devil is in the detail, with the key to develop a future plan around communications to understand the performance of different areas of Australia.

Admittedly, the data is challenging to find. But it does exist. In PDF form – and it was found here.

I manually cut and pasted the data into Google Sheets, cleaned it up, and created a heat map which shows every Statistical Area 4 in Australia and where they currently sit in regards to first dose administration. I wanted to know which areas were falling behind, which areas sat at average, and which were above average. This would lead to understanding the nuances in each region in relation to factors that could help or hinder vaccine awareness and action.

Source: Australian Government

The best way to interpret the map is the darker the area, the more advanced they are along with first doses. The lighter the area, the less advanced.

At first glance it tells a pretty simple story. High take-up in the south east – Victoria, ACT, Canberra, southern NSW – lower take-up across Queensland and Western Australia, and remote areas falling behind.

However, zoom in on Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan areas and you can see the challenge in stark terms.

Melbourne’s West and outer South East is sitting at around 34-36% of first doses administered. Compare this with the Inner South at 49%. Or the Mornington Peninsula at 48%. Or the Inner East at 47.7%, or the outer east at 43.9%.

Melbourne’s West and South East are home to 2.18 million people. And right now they’re 20% behind the national average and around 40-50% behind the more affluent parts of the Eastern suburbs.

Sydney is pretty similar. The Eastern Suburbs sit at 44.8%, North Sydney and Hornsby at 51.8%, Sutherland at 48.8%, Northern Beaches at 47.7%. Sydney South West is at 33.1%, Parramatta at 35.1%, the Inner South West at 33.5% and City and Inner South 36.5%. Combine these lower vaccinated areas and they account for 1.96 million people, and they face the same issue as those similar in Melbourne in  that in their communities they are 20% less vaccinated than the Australian average, and considerably below Sydney suburbs in the east and northern beaches.

The data is also available here – where you can see the statistical area 4 zones by rank.

Source: Australian Government

The takeout is simple. A top down approach cannot work, and there is no silver bullet. No magic advertisement that sorts it out. No one media channel does the entire job. No one audience that needs to be persuaded. The differences by SA4 demonstrate that what works in one area, may not work in another. When you categorise the SA4 zones, approximately 30 of the 88 are 10% ahead of the national average, around 25 of the 88 are 10% below the national average, and the remaining 33 are within +/- 10%

And this isn’t necessarily due to remoteness. Of the 25 SA4’s that are 10% below the national average, 13 are in metropolitan areas.

3. Addressing the characteristics of what isn’t working

When looking at the SA4 zones where vaccine administration is 10% or more lower than the national average, you can categorise these into a few buckets.

• Outback – e.g. Outback WA, Orange NSW
• Regional – e.g. Ipswich QLD, Townsville QLD
• Metropolitan – e.g North West Melbourne, South West Sydney

It’s worth looking at the profile of some of the suburbs in these areas and the main differences between them and Australia as a whole.

All of the below region profile data is taken from the 2016 census, with the information extracted from the SBS Census Explorer – Census Explorer | SBS World News

Outback: Orange NSW

• 6.7% indigenous population (compared to national average of 2.7%)
• 72.6% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 45.1% finished High School (compared to 56.8 of total population)
• 25.5% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• The highest volume occupations are sales assistants, nursing and care roles, and truck drivers.
• Below average income

Regional: Ipswich QLD

• 4.2% indigenous population (compared to national average of 2.7%)
• 54.9% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 51.2% finished High School (compared to 56.8 of total population)
• 19.5% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• The highest volume occupations are sales assistants, truck drivers, child carers and storepeople.
• Below average income.

Regional: Townsville QLD

• 92% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 5.5% indigenous population (compared to national average of 2.7%)
• 63.8% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 24.5% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• The highest volume occupations are sales assistants, nurses, defence force, general clerks and truck drivers.
• Below average income.

Metro: Brimbank VIC 

• 37.9% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 16.4% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 48.4% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population)
• 31.1% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 32.7% employment level (compared to 37.3% of total population)
• 54% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Below average income

Metro: Liverpool NSW

• 44.3% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 21% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 55.9% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population)
• 28.2% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 61.5% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Manual/unskilled work dominates

Looking through these we can see some themes.

Outback + regional:high distance from capital cities and volume of geographical area to tackle make coverage challenging, high indigenous population, low income, lower levels of high school and bachelor degree education, predominantly manual workforce, more homogeneous population profile than the average for Australia.

Metropolitan: significantly lower levels of English speaking at home, high levels of population not born in Australia, low levels of parents born in Australia, higher levels of three or more people per household than national average, below average income.

These areas are illustrative of the challenges a top down approach to a big mass initiative can create. All of these areas are different, but the commonality is that they are significantly different to the commonly held view of ‘Australia’. And the current approach is not working in areas that possess these unique demographic challenges.

Getting these right is critical – these areas when combined make up a significant chunk of the population, and some of these areas are 50% behind the national average. Getting the nation to 70-80% isn’t going to happen with such large zones lagging at current levels.

4. Enhancing the characteristics of what is working

As outlined above, there are 30 SA4 areas that are enjoying first dose vaccination levels well above the national average.

These fall into two buckets:

• Regional – e.g. Bendigo VIC, Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven NSW
• Metropolitan – e.g Inner South VIC, North Sydney and Hornsby NSW

It’s worth looking at the profile of some of the suburbs in these areas and the main differences between them and Australia as a whole.

All of the below region profile data is taken from the 2016 census, with the information extracted from the SBS Census Explorer – Census Explorer | SBS World News

Regional: Greater Bendigo VIC

• 95% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 74.6% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 91.4% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population)
• 45.8% have finished Year 12 (compared to 56.8% of total population)
• 24.2% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 33.3% employment level (compared to 37.3% of total population)
• 37% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Average income

Regional: Shoalhaven NSW

• 5.7% of the population are indigenous (compared to national average of 2.7%)
• 95.7% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 64.5% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 91.4% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population)
• 38.1% have finished Year 12 (compared to 56.8% of total population)
• 18.1% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 25.7% employment level (compared to 37.3% of total population)
• 32.5% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Manual/unskilled work dominates
• Below average income

Metro: Port Phillip VIC

• 77.1% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• 37.6% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 64.9% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population), with an additional 15.5% born in the UK or New Zealand.
• 80.6% have finished Year 12 (compared to 56.8% of total population)
• 45.4% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 51.2% employment level (compared to 37.3% of total population)
• 31% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Professional, degree based jobs dominate
• Above average income

Metro: North Sydney NSW

• 69.7% spoke English at home (compared to 77% of population)
• Largest other languages spoken – Mandarin, Cantonese, Japanese, Korean (collectively = 14.3%)
• 47% of the population had both parents born in Australia (compared to national average of 47.3%)
• 59% of the population were born in Australia (compared to 71.7% of total population), with an additional 19.7% born in the UK, China or New Zealand.
• 82.6% have finished Year 12 (compared to 56.8% of total population)
• 47.8% have a bachelor level degree (compared to 30.5% of total population)
• 47.9% employment level (compared to 37.3% of total population)
• 38% live in a household with 3 or more people (compared to 42% of total population)
• Professional, degree based jobs dominate
• Above average income

What are some of the themes? Well, they differ depending on the area.

In regional areas we can see the makeup of the population in these areas isn’t that different from the regional areas with lower vaccine administration rates. Similar levels of education, employment, income, population of birth, language spoken at home. The difference appears to be geographical. The majority of regional areas with lower vaccine take-up tend to be in regional Queensland, Western Australia and Northern New South Wales. The regional areas with the highest take-ups of vaccine are in Victoria, Tasmania and Southern New South Wales. The further north and west you go, the lower the take-up.

Queensland has by a large amount, the highest vaccine hesitancy. Queenslanders are 41% more likely to state they will not get the vaccine when compared to the national average, and they’re 46% more likely to be undecided.

Source: Melbourne Institute

The difference in the metropolitan areas is significant. Metro areas with lower than average administration rates tend to have higher levels of linguistic diversity, higher levels of population not born in Australia, higher levels of parents not born in Australia, lower income, lower education and more manual/unskilled labour forces.

The metro areas with higher levels are significantly above average in five key areas – household income, education level, key professions (being skilled, white collar roles), employment level and household composition (high majority of people living in households with two or fewer people).

You see as you track vaccine rates by region as they get closer to the average that a few headline trends become evident.

• Highly educated, higher income areas track strongly above average when it comes to vaccine administration … and as administration levels go down generally so do these two areas.
• Regional areas in Victoria, Southern and Central NSW, Tasmania and South East South Australia are tracking well despite their demographics mirroring reasonably closely those of areas of regional QLD and WA that are tracking below average.
• Metropolitan vaccine rates tend to fall into two camps – average to above average in higher income, higher educated metro areas with lower linguistic diversity and lower household density, and below average in areas with below average income, higher linguistic diversity, higher cultural diversity and higher household density.

5. What is the best framework for a future approach

So we have a clear goal – vaccinate 80% of eligible Australians.

We have a key performance metric – the Vaccine Utilisation Ratio. It’s presently sitting at around 63%. We want it up around 80-90%.

We know that there are large discrepancies around take-up between geographic areas, and we know that there are three core groups of take-up – above average, average and below average.

We know that the above average areas are, generally when compared to the national average, more educated, have higher income, work in more skilled professions, and live in lower density households. And we know the below average areas are generally lower than the average in these areas, and are working in more manual/unskilled labour and living in higher density households.

And additionally, for lower than average vaccine take-up in metro areas, the most impacted areas are highly culturally diverse, with English not the dominant language spoken at home.

And data suggests that Queensland is the most vaccine hesitant state in the nation – with 11 of the 30 lowest SA4 regions when it comes to vaccine take-up, being in Queensland.

A framework to get Australia to 80% and really increase the Vaccine Utilisation Ratio needs to focus around three core areas.

• Audience – the people we deploy resource towards
• Message – what we say to them
• Medium – where we say it to them

Audience

My recommendation is moving forward, we need to split the audiences into cohorts and prioritise based on the below. A cohort led approach can be bottom up and focused on breaking through the barriers that exist in each area.

• Critical: NSW/VIC – Metro West and South East – these are SA4’s with high levels of population, so the prize is massive if you can get it right. However, there is a lot of work to do around tailoring communications and media choice to the ethnic makeup of each zone. We also know each of these zones has above average household density – which is a risk for spread of COVID, and on top of this they are more likely to be in jobs where working from home is not an option. An approach for consideration is to have dedicated squads focused on each vulnerable SA4 or LGA in Sydney and Melbourne – taking a local area marketing approach in addition to the top down communications from the state and federal government.
• Critical: QLD/SA – Regional – these areas are below the national average when it comes to income and education, and have been shown through data and surveys that they are more vaccine hesitant than other areas in Australia. The incremental challenge is that the data demonstrates this audience is less willing than other areas of Australia to change their mind on vaccines if provided with information that demonstrates efficacy or success in other regions. Queensland and South Australia were also the most spooked by the ATAGI advisory and the concern around blood clots. Queensland back in February 2021 was the second lowest state when it came to vaccine hesitancy, 5 months on it had the highest levels of hesitancy (source – Vaccine Hesitancy Report Card (unimelb.edu.au)). Unpacking this is going to take significant outreach.
• Critical: WA/NT – Regional – these areas have higher levels of indigenous population, and are the most remote parts of the country. Top down messaging won’t work as it just won’t reach these parts of the nation. Regional WA and NT is about scoring as many singles as possible, chipping away town by town.
• High Importance: QLD/WA Metro – on the whole, metro areas in Queensland and Western Australia are lagging behind the rest of the country. These 3 areas have been some of the least affected by COVID over the past 18 months, and generally have seen life return to normal with very minimal use of lockdowns in comparison to Melbourne and Sydney. A key data point is WA is well above the national average on not willing to be vaccinated, but below the national average when it comes to being undecided. So the task in WA is very much about looking to reverse sentiment against vaccines, rather than nudge the undecided. QLD is a challenge as an evidence based messaging approach is significantly less likely to work in the state, compared to other parts of Australia.
• Important: Regional – Northern NSW – the northern parts of NSW have lower levels of administered vaccines than the rest of the state. This becomes greater the further inland you go.
• Maintenance: NSW/VIC/ACT/SA – Metro (ex. NSW/VIC – Metro West and South East) – higher than average income and education, plus a more white collar/professional workforce has a strong relationship with above average vaccine rates. The more comfortable your home and financial environment is, combined with a higher level of education, the more likely you are to vaccinate. This group needs very minimal communications aside from information  that vaccines are available.
• Maintenance: TAS/VIC/South & Central NSW – Regional – despite these regions looking similar in terms of population profile to their QLD and WA counterparts, they demonstrate remarkably different habits when it comes to vaccine administration so far. Like the above-mentioned metro areas, this cohort is turning out in volumes well above the national average and does not need to be the focus of communications resources.

The critical zones require a fundamentally different approach. High focus by SA4 or LGA. Multiple approaches, and a mix of media and messaging.

High importance zones are geographically dispersed and unlikely to be hit with top down mass broadcast communications. These areas require significant local nuance.

Maintenance zones are highly serviced by the media, well connected and at numbers well above the national average. This performance needs to be maintained, but resources need to be taken from these zones and deployed into the critical and high importance zones if the 70-80% target is to be achieved.

Message

What we need to say ultimately depends on which of the above cohorts we are speaking to.

Data from the Melbourne Institute suggests that ‘recommendations’ from celebrities or the government doesn’t work. In fact, they are the least effective. This is an important one to note as some of the advertising industry sentiment has been around using celebrities in particular to drive action.

What does seem to work is information around vaccine effectiveness, and illustrations of success in areas of Australia and the rest of the world due to the vaccine.

Source: Melbourne Institute

On the whole evidence based messaging works, but it is significantly less effective in Queensland (37% compared to 54% national average and almost 60% in Vic and WA).

As Australia passes 40% in first doses, and 20% in double doses, data is beginning to emerge around the success of these vaccinations locally. This will provide positive messaging material. On top of this there is robust data on vaccination efficacy in comparable nations such as the US, UK and Canada.

Messaging around effectiveness, combined with messaging around supply will have a positive effect. But the way this is communicated is critical, and must be tailored to the cohorts above in terms of language used, wording, complexity, headlines and delivery.

The importance of effectiveness evidence also suggests the critical role the media play in reporting – especially around vaccine hesitation triggers. A flood of government based communications will be rendered neutral if confronted by headlines and social media posts around isolated blood clots or breakthrough cases. A huge chunk of this rollout and getting to 70-80% rests on the media and the platforms.

A recommendation would be to incorporate dedicated messaging/creative resourcing into the squads responsible for each cohort. This will allow rapid deployment of messaging that is working, amendments to those that aren’t, and connectivity between those responsible for messaging and those responsible for placement. The analog is retail local area marketing, think like a Coles or a car dealer, rather than a top down brand.

Medium

A top-down media consumption won’t work here as we are working with such a wide variety of cohorts, all of whom have different consumption patterns.

Aligning with the cohorts identified is a more sensible way, with the aim getting to a maximum rate of 1+ exposure by cohort.

• Critical: NSW/VIC – Metro West and South East – Small Format OOH (specific to suburbs), YouTube targeted by suburb/language/interest, Facebook (suburb, language, interest), Experiential (by suburbs, and staffed by locals to that suburb), international news and entertainment outlets (with geotargeting), direct mail, paid search (in local language, with local language landing pages), local media PR and content outreach
• Critical: QLD/SA – Regional – regional TV, Digital – news, Facebook (with regional specific targeting), YouTube (with regional specific area targeting), Paid Search (particularly around key vaccination related terms), local media PR and content outreach, local experiential activity (relevant to each SA4), Regional Press.
• Critical: WA/NT – Regional – heavy outreach, heavy one to one
• High Importance: QLD/WA Metro – metro TV, metro radio, digital – news, small format OOH, paid search, YouTube (targeted to area, demographic, topic), Facebook + Instagram (as per YouTube targeting),  Paid Search (particularly around key vaccination related terms), local media PR and content outreach, local experiential activity (relevant to each SA4), Metro Press.
• Important: Regional – Northern NSW – regional TV, digital – news,
• Maintenance: NSW/VIC/ACT/SA – Metro (ex. NSW/VIC – Metro West and South East) – Metro TV, Pay TV, Digital – News, Small Format OOH, YouTube (targeted by suburb, plus 16+), Facebook/Instagram (targeted by suburb, plus 16+)
• Maintenance: TAS/VIC/South & Central NSW – Regional – Regional TV, Regional Press, Digital – News, YouTube (targeted by region, plus 16+), Facebook/Instagram (targeted by region, plus 16+)

Remember, the goal here is to maximise 1+ reach of 16+ per cohort, and to find mediums that can adequately grab attention and also communicate the depth of message required. The directive would be to invest more per person in the critical areas than in the maintenance areas. Maintenance areas have momentum – it is about gently nudging this and keeping it moving. Critical areas do not – they need to be accelerated, and need significantly more resources and energy.

Addressable or localised channels have been preferred for critical areas due to the location specific task of the media. It doesn’t negate the need for broadcast, it more so outlines the requirement that the diversity of the media tactics is commensurate with the diversity of the audience. For the maintenance regions, a broader approach can be adopted because these regions are vaccinating at significantly more than the critical zones.

Budget wise the answer is simple – as much as is needed, if not more. We know the costs of lockdown, we know the costs of a throttled economy, and we know the health and societal costs COVID brings. These are multi billion dollar impacts, so it is highly likely any media and communications investment that can nudge the critical zones closer to the national average will have a favourable return. My view is that vaccination related communications should be louder and more distributed than any private sector advertiser, and need the budget and resources required to do this.

6. Getting to 80% – measure and optimise

The final piece on top of audience, message, medium and resource is that of measurement.

What we measure is critical and generally will fall into three areas. Measurements which outline the volume of vaccines administered and the volume of vaccines in surplus. Measurements which plot the performance of SA4’s in relation to the national average – to gauge the areas being left behind. And measurements which outline vaccine resistance and vaccine related indecision.

The former can be tracked at a national level, and two other areas need to be tracked at the SA4 level and any communications adjusted accordingly.

It would be recommended vaccine administration levels move from SA4 tracking to LGA tracking – SA4 could be too broad a measurement as in some instances there are 5 or 10 LGA’s per SA4.

In terms of goals – obviously the macro goal is 70-80% vaccination rates. But the more actionable and addressable goals exist at the region based level. Moving the areas that have fallen behind to a more acceptable level (from being more than 10% below the national average to within +/-5% of the national average), keeping the areas presently at the national average in line with this, and maintaining the momentum of the regions that are well above the national average (but knowing these can slow down a little, especially if it means the areas behind can start to really speed up)

With adequate resources, deploying as per this recommendation is achievable. But it needs resources – both financial and human. Think of it like contact tracing in terms of its requirement for resources and energy, as well as the need for it to be super micro at times.

Conclusion: A media planners approach to improving the vaccine rollout

You might be asking why I did this. It’s a reasonable question. I wanted to better understand the drivers behind where we are and where we can go. For the record, I was vaccinated and received the Pfizer vaccine when it opened up to over 40’s in Victoria. I believe in vaccines and I believe in science.

Being in lockdown is frustrating and this was a way to try and look at options to accelerate a way out of this. It’s by no means an absolute answer, but it does demonstrate how to use media planning and strategy techniques to approach a complex problem.

I also felt it was important to make the data I had accessible to others. From working in the media for two decades I know how curious most of us are, and if making the data more accessible gets others thinking about this it may lead to some great outcomes.

Stay safe. Get vaccinated.

Ben Shepherd is a media analyst. The 80/20 View is a regular column on Mumbrella.

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topics Ben Shepherd coronavirus COVID-19 The 80/20 View Vaccination

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