Disney+ will dramatically increase illegal downloading in Australia

So bloody true!
The Mandalorian is fantastic (thank you Pirate Bay)

“…dramatically increase” is such an un-data analyst way of saying things. MEH.

I don’t see illegal downloading going up. I see people switching from one provider to another. Aussie’s like paying for a product they think is worth it and Disney is an amazing product for families. Watch out for the great migration from people having Stan to having Disney+

The lack of lock-in contracts is changing my household’s behviour: we just cancelled Netflix in favour of Stan (and not for the first time).

Netflix’s movie offerings are terrible right now, and we have watched the marquee series offerings we are interested in, so the subscription has been cancelled.

We will return to Netflix once something worthwhile gets our attention – then it will be bye bye to Stan.

I don’t understand how “The past 12 years of data from torrentfreak.com supports this theory”. This whole argument seemed a bit of a stretch, surprising from a “Data Analyst”. Link to torrentfreak data perhaps?

Major point missing – none of these services are contract based. You can dive in and out as much as you like.

It would be a rare consumer that would have content they consider to be ‘must have’ across 6+ streaming services.

It also misses that TVOD has entered into a major discounting phase (like DVD before it), so it’s become much more affordable to ‘top up’ your streaming subscriptions with e.g. an iTunes store purchase of that HBO show you want.

I just don’t see pirating increasing, when it’s now so easy to get 4K content instantly on whatever device you want.

In fact, I think pirating will decrease when Foxtel’s stranglehold on HBO and lifestyle programming ends, the FTA’s negotiate better terms for their catch-up services, and global releases become the norm.

There isn’t much information in here to support the argument that Australian’s can’t afford the additional $9 per month. Especially when we consider how many have been paying $80+ for Foxtel for so many years… Granted, you highlight a lot of reasons why the value might not be there, compared to the type of content people like to consume, but that doesn’t mean consumers won’t be prepared to pay for access to the niche content they can’t get anywhere else (legally).

Top Tip that isn’t illegal (?) . Buy Netflix and Invest in a VPN and then change your devices location to the market you need.

Globally, content series are bought by different providers in different countries so you can just switch the location to that country and watch what you like. Just takes a little research, but i have more time than money. Muahahaha.

I think the writer overstates the financial aspect. $8.99 a month for Disney is hardly going to break a household’s budget, and $65.96 a month for all services seems quite good value when compared to the cost of a family going to the movies once a month.

This doesn’t even make sense. How does a data scientist runs this with a far-stretch opinion as a fact?

What a load of rubbish!
Australians have been paying between $50-$100 for Foxtel for years and continue to do so.
Disney gives more choice and their content is fantastic, especially for families.
I think most subscribers will eventually have at least three subscriptions, changing streaming providers when the need arises.
People who pirate will do it regardless of Disney being in Australia.

In other news – a show people want to watch will result in people downloading it.

Why aren’t more data ‘scientists’ using their hours on clients instead of this dribble which is clearly just a means of putting his name in Mumbrella?

The article could clearly read millenials and Gen X are interested in Star Wars, they are not interested in cartoons. Hence when a new Star Wars program launches, they will be more inclined to illegally download rather than pay for a glut of programs they are not interested in.

People who can’t afford stuff – or think the price outweighs the value – may end up stealing it? Is that the point?

A “data scientist” should really understand the basic microeconomic concept of substitution. But I s’pose that hasn’t been covered in a Kaggle competition yet.

might be a ‘data analyst’ but I must admit I [Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy]

this is so strange – any show can be downloaded illegally at any time. regardless if it is available from a paid service in Aus.

and at any time a very popular show will increase the amount of illegal downloads i any market. at any time. in any market.

from the split referenced above in terms of costs to the Australian consumer what is interesting is where Disney will fit in. as they will. and then who wont.

$65 for the amount of services you mention is great value! And that ignores the fact that most people would never stay subscribed to that amount – they’ll keep a couple (Netflix & Disney+), then switch between a third and possibly fourth when necessary.

I don’t really buy that Disney+ in particular is what’s going to increase piracy but this article does make one valid point:

“The only solution, as I see it, is to de-fragment content, allowing users to consume shows regardless of the service which offers it.”

Whoever can crack the tech and business side of reviving the video store for streaming is going to crush it.

No mention of the fact that the Australian government is now regularly blocking torrent websites?

Sure, you can get around the filters by searching around for mirror-sites or using a VPN, but casual piracy has surely been impacted.

Um, “few households” can afford an extra $9 a month?

Where does that statement come from? $9 doesn’t even buy you two coffees, or in the olden days, two new release videos from VideoEzy.

Not a very scientific statement from a so-called data scientist.

Given that the median weekly equivalised disposable household income in Australia is almost $900 a week (and therefore more than $4000 a month), saying $9 a month is too much sounds like an unfounded statement used to justify illegal behaviour.

I have to disagree, other news sources can quote reports indicating that online piracy has reduced significantly over the last 10 years – mainly due to the increase of streaming platforms and their ease of use.

Australian culture, in general, has the “fair go” approach – people will pay for content if they believe it’s fair – as long as it’s affordable, easy to use and usable at a convenient time, people are far more likely to legally access content.

I highly doubt that all households would be subscribing to every single streaming service out there – it’s just not viable or even possible to watch all the media that’s currently available, so the argument that it’s unaffordable is a poor excuse.

[Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy]

There are a lot of assumptions in this piece but not much evidence that backs up the arguments the author is making.

The reality is the lunch of the svod players in Australia has actually decreased not increased pirating.

Hot take but astonishingly naive analysis.

A lot of the criticism above covers this already, but I would point out that the biggest missing point here is not the economics but the user experience.

Once the streaming experience on a TV became so much easier than the complicated and risky process (for the average punter) of illegal downloading, the <$20 a month for a family price ranges became inconsequential. Convenience wins.

Further, super fan shows like the Mandalorian were never targeted on Disney+ for twenty something men, it’s targeted at families with kids 8-16 who want something to watch all together. The 25 year old Star Wars fan in share house is rarely going to subscribe to Disney+ but it’s not the point.

Lastly I was very surprised to see no data backing up the opinion.

Mumbrella must be hard up for writers if this [Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy] is contributing. What a load of shite.

Side note. Ditch foxtel and you can afford a great many things.

What ever Lars.

Disney+ decision to create an app that only supports post-2016 model LG TVs is appalling as it excludes families with older TVs and inadvertently contributes further to consumer waste forcing people who want to use this service to upgrade and choose a newer model TV. I hope it does drive up piracy because the only way to make large companies take responsibility is to cost them money.

Disney+ has totally disregarded their target audience – families, with their decision to create an app that only works on post-2016 LG TVs (in my case 2015). Generally in Australia families are on a tight budget already and this leaves people with the dilemma of going without or upgrading their otherwise functional set, contributing to our waste problems. Netflix and others are quite capable of creating apps for older sets. Perhaps Disney needs a piracy issue to help them reach a little deeper into their moral hip pocket!

What an odd article, of course when you put content out there that has a price tag attached regardless of platform, there will be an increase in illegal downloads. People who have never paid for content are not likely to start but by the same token, I don’t think this will drive regular ‘folks’ to a life of crime.
From the people that want DIsney+ they mainly fall into two categories – 1. They will add it to their list of streaming services and pay that little extra per month. 2. They will add it and take away another service, most likely STAN as that had a lot of the Disney content anyway….given the price difference they will actually end up better off financially.
Suggesting that this new platform will “dramatically increase illegal downloads” is a little…….dramatic.