Disney+ will dramatically increase illegal downloading in Australia
The launch of the latest streaming video-on-demand service in Australia is about to have an unwanted consequence for content creators, according to LIDA’s Jake Lyme.
This week, Australia’s streaming market welcomed a new competitor with the launch of the much anticipated Disney+. For $8.99 a month, you can access a catalogue that includes the Marvel and Star Wars libraries, classics such as Frozen, The Lion King, Toy Story, and The Simpsons, and original content like The Mandalorian.
But few households can afford to fork out for Disney+ on top of all the other streaming offerings. And with the hype around series such as The Mandalorian, we’ll most likely see an increase in illegal downloading as wannabe viewers look to get their hands on these shows. That’s right – Disney+ will probably drive up illegal downloading in this country.
According to AMPD Research, Australians, on average, are already spending $35.30 per month for 1.9 subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services. If you were to join all primary services at the cheapest price possible – Netflix Basic at $9.99, Stan at $10, Foxtel Now at $25, Amazon Prime Video at $6.99, Apple TV+ at $4.99, and now Disney+ at $8.99 – you’d be set back $65.96 per month. And this list doesn’t include additional niche services such as 10 All Access, YouTube Premium, Kayo, Hayu and more.
As more providers enter the market and content becomes fragmented, Australians will resort to illegal downloads. The past 12 years of data from torrentfreak.com supports this theory. Here’s what crunching the data tells us:
Bingeable TV is the most consumed content
Nielsen conducted a study for the Wall Street Journal from 2017-2018, and found that The Office was the most-watched content on Netflix, on 45.8bn minutes. Stranger Things, Netflix’s original cornerstone program, clocked 27.6bn minutes.
Additionally, Nielsen reported that the top originals are a good reason to sign up, but don’t drive consistent viewership. So bingeable content may be in high demand, but you can just as easily binge it when you download it illegally versus watching on its native platform.
On-demand and release dates are essential to consumers
Back in the mid-2000s, every water-cooler conversation was about the latest episode of Lost or Heroes. They were free-to-air programming made available to every Australian with a TV. But, due to the delay in broadcast compared to America, and the inability to watch it when it suited, the two shows averaged 10-12m illegal downloads per year between them.
You can count on the fact that people want to watch their favourite shows when everyone else is watching them, regardless of whether they are paying for the platform that streams them.
One cornerstone program won’t necessarily get you a loyal customer
Game of Thrones set the world into a new era of television. It dominated pop-culture and awakened the inner nerd in many of us. In Australia, GOT was only available on Foxtel. In the US, it was HBO, and for many customers, this was not their preferred SVOD service.
This combination of market conditions paved the way for unheard-of-levels of illegal downloads, with yearly reported numbers hitting as high as 14.4m in a year, and topping the top 10 illegal downloads list for six years.
With Disney+ releasing The Mandalorian, Australians are likely to follow a similar path and choose illegal downloads as opposed to signing up to the platform.
Music doesn’t experience the same issue
Analysing music-on-demand services such as Spotify, Apple Music and Pandora, we don’t see the same issue. The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) has reported the total number of stream-rippers has dropped dramatically, from 32% last year to 23% in 2019.
And a recent UK YouGov survey found Brits are pirating less, with 18% of respondents reporting piracy in 2013, compared to 10% in 2018. A study also showed 18% of respondents often tried to get pirated TV content, with exclusive content likely to cause an increase, with a self-reported jump to 37%.
Some of us will jump on board the Disney+ train, lured by The Mandalorian and the nostalgia of The Simpsons. But it’s even more likely that the rest of us will stick with our current streaming provider/s and turn to a tech-savvy friend for a USB copy of the newest hit show.
The only solution, as I see it, is to de-fragment content, allowing users to consume shows regardless of the service which offers it. The implementation of an appropriate financial model would move us into a new era, where we pay for what we watch rather than having to pick one streaming platform over the other. But given the major investment in the SVOD market, that’s an unlikely outcome.
Jake Lyme is a data scientist at M&C Saatchi agency, LIDA
So bloody true!
The Mandalorian is fantastic (thank you Pirate Bay)
User ID not verified.
“…dramatically increase” is such an un-data analyst way of saying things. MEH.
User ID not verified.
I don’t see illegal downloading going up. I see people switching from one provider to another. Aussie’s like paying for a product they think is worth it and Disney is an amazing product for families. Watch out for the great migration from people having Stan to having Disney+
User ID not verified.
The lack of lock-in contracts is changing my household’s behviour: we just cancelled Netflix in favour of Stan (and not for the first time).
Netflix’s movie offerings are terrible right now, and we have watched the marquee series offerings we are interested in, so the subscription has been cancelled.
We will return to Netflix once something worthwhile gets our attention – then it will be bye bye to Stan.
User ID not verified.
I don’t understand how “The past 12 years of data from torrentfreak.com supports this theory”. This whole argument seemed a bit of a stretch, surprising from a “Data Analyst”. Link to torrentfreak data perhaps?
User ID not verified.
Major point missing – none of these services are contract based. You can dive in and out as much as you like.
It would be a rare consumer that would have content they consider to be ‘must have’ across 6+ streaming services.
It also misses that TVOD has entered into a major discounting phase (like DVD before it), so it’s become much more affordable to ‘top up’ your streaming subscriptions with e.g. an iTunes store purchase of that HBO show you want.
I just don’t see pirating increasing, when it’s now so easy to get 4K content instantly on whatever device you want.
In fact, I think pirating will decrease when Foxtel’s stranglehold on HBO and lifestyle programming ends, the FTA’s negotiate better terms for their catch-up services, and global releases become the norm.
User ID not verified.
There isn’t much information in here to support the argument that Australian’s can’t afford the additional $9 per month. Especially when we consider how many have been paying $80+ for Foxtel for so many years… Granted, you highlight a lot of reasons why the value might not be there, compared to the type of content people like to consume, but that doesn’t mean consumers won’t be prepared to pay for access to the niche content they can’t get anywhere else (legally).
User ID not verified.
Top Tip that isn’t illegal (?) . Buy Netflix and Invest in a VPN and then change your devices location to the market you need.
Globally, content series are bought by different providers in different countries so you can just switch the location to that country and watch what you like. Just takes a little research, but i have more time than money. Muahahaha.
User ID not verified.
I think the writer overstates the financial aspect. $8.99 a month for Disney is hardly going to break a household’s budget, and $65.96 a month for all services seems quite good value when compared to the cost of a family going to the movies once a month.
User ID not verified.
This doesn’t even make sense. How does a data scientist runs this with a far-stretch opinion as a fact?
User ID not verified.
What a load of rubbish!
Australians have been paying between $50-$100 for Foxtel for years and continue to do so.
Disney gives more choice and their content is fantastic, especially for families.
I think most subscribers will eventually have at least three subscriptions, changing streaming providers when the need arises.
People who pirate will do it regardless of Disney being in Australia.
User ID not verified.
In other news – a show people want to watch will result in people downloading it.
User ID not verified.
Why aren’t more data ‘scientists’ using their hours on clients instead of this dribble which is clearly just a means of putting his name in Mumbrella?
The article could clearly read millenials and Gen X are interested in Star Wars, they are not interested in cartoons. Hence when a new Star Wars program launches, they will be more inclined to illegally download rather than pay for a glut of programs they are not interested in.
User ID not verified.
Ditched Stan for Disney+ on day one. Watch families unsubscribe in droves when they realise Disney has more than Stan’s ‘exclusive’ offering ever did (no Moana, Star Wars, etc.).
User ID not verified.
People who can’t afford stuff – or think the price outweighs the value – may end up stealing it? Is that the point?
User ID not verified.
A “data scientist” should really understand the basic microeconomic concept of substitution. But I s’pose that hasn’t been covered in a Kaggle competition yet.
User ID not verified.
might be a ‘data analyst’ but I must admit I [Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy]
User ID not verified.
this is so strange – any show can be downloaded illegally at any time. regardless if it is available from a paid service in Aus.
and at any time a very popular show will increase the amount of illegal downloads i any market. at any time. in any market.
from the split referenced above in terms of costs to the Australian consumer what is interesting is where Disney will fit in. as they will. and then who wont.
User ID not verified.
$65 for the amount of services you mention is great value! And that ignores the fact that most people would never stay subscribed to that amount – they’ll keep a couple (Netflix & Disney+), then switch between a third and possibly fourth when necessary.
User ID not verified.
I don’t really buy that Disney+ in particular is what’s going to increase piracy but this article does make one valid point:
“The only solution, as I see it, is to de-fragment content, allowing users to consume shows regardless of the service which offers it.”
Whoever can crack the tech and business side of reviving the video store for streaming is going to crush it.
User ID not verified.
No mention of the fact that the Australian government is now regularly blocking torrent websites?
Sure, you can get around the filters by searching around for mirror-sites or using a VPN, but casual piracy has surely been impacted.
User ID not verified.
Um, “few households” can afford an extra $9 a month?
Where does that statement come from? $9 doesn’t even buy you two coffees, or in the olden days, two new release videos from VideoEzy.
Not a very scientific statement from a so-called data scientist.
Given that the median weekly equivalised disposable household income in Australia is almost $900 a week (and therefore more than $4000 a month), saying $9 a month is too much sounds like an unfounded statement used to justify illegal behaviour.
User ID not verified.
I have to disagree, other news sources can quote reports indicating that online piracy has reduced significantly over the last 10 years – mainly due to the increase of streaming platforms and their ease of use.
Australian culture, in general, has the “fair go” approach – people will pay for content if they believe it’s fair – as long as it’s affordable, easy to use and usable at a convenient time, people are far more likely to legally access content.
I highly doubt that all households would be subscribing to every single streaming service out there – it’s just not viable or even possible to watch all the media that’s currently available, so the argument that it’s unaffordable is a poor excuse.
User ID not verified.
[Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy]
User ID not verified.
There are a lot of assumptions in this piece but not much evidence that backs up the arguments the author is making.
The reality is the lunch of the svod players in Australia has actually decreased not increased pirating.
User ID not verified.
Hot take but astonishingly naive analysis.
A lot of the criticism above covers this already, but I would point out that the biggest missing point here is not the economics but the user experience.
Once the streaming experience on a TV became so much easier than the complicated and risky process (for the average punter) of illegal downloading, the <$20 a month for a family price ranges became inconsequential. Convenience wins.
Further, super fan shows like the Mandalorian were never targeted on Disney+ for twenty something men, it’s targeted at families with kids 8-16 who want something to watch all together. The 25 year old Star Wars fan in share house is rarely going to subscribe to Disney+ but it’s not the point.
Lastly I was very surprised to see no data backing up the opinion.
User ID not verified.
Mumbrella must be hard up for writers if this [Edited under Mumbrella’s comment moderation policy] is contributing. What a load of shite.
Side note. Ditch foxtel and you can afford a great many things.
User ID not verified.
What ever Lars.
User ID not verified.
Disney+ decision to create an app that only supports post-2016 model LG TVs is appalling as it excludes families with older TVs and inadvertently contributes further to consumer waste forcing people who want to use this service to upgrade and choose a newer model TV. I hope it does drive up piracy because the only way to make large companies take responsibility is to cost them money.
User ID not verified.
Disney+ has totally disregarded their target audience – families, with their decision to create an app that only works on post-2016 LG TVs (in my case 2015). Generally in Australia families are on a tight budget already and this leaves people with the dilemma of going without or upgrading their otherwise functional set, contributing to our waste problems. Netflix and others are quite capable of creating apps for older sets. Perhaps Disney needs a piracy issue to help them reach a little deeper into their moral hip pocket!
User ID not verified.
What an odd article, of course when you put content out there that has a price tag attached regardless of platform, there will be an increase in illegal downloads. People who have never paid for content are not likely to start but by the same token, I don’t think this will drive regular ‘folks’ to a life of crime.
From the people that want DIsney+ they mainly fall into two categories – 1. They will add it to their list of streaming services and pay that little extra per month. 2. They will add it and take away another service, most likely STAN as that had a lot of the Disney content anyway….given the price difference they will actually end up better off financially.
Suggesting that this new platform will “dramatically increase illegal downloads” is a little…….dramatic.
User ID not verified.
Everything is free on the internet
User ID not verified.