Google search: Almost as good as a crystal ball
You are about to embark on a journey through the intricate world of market dynamics and consumer behaviour with iProspect strategist, Pawena Kaniah, where Share of Search serves as a crystal ball predicting future trends, while Search Intent unveils the desires and motivations fuelling those trends.
You are about to embark on a journey through the intricate world of market dynamics and consumer behaviour, where Share of Search serves as a crystal ball predicting future trends, while Search Intent unveils the desires and motivations fuelling those trends.
People use search to seek information, compare options, and even make transactions.
If we look at the electric vehicle category, what can search tell us about the way consumers are thinking? What are their thoughts on traditional EV brands versus legacy automotive brands that are becoming electrified? How is the cost of living influencing this category?
We can glean a lot from search. The details given by the searcher provide clues to gauge intent strength and highlight unresolved pain points or customer care issues, often overlooked by brands.
This isn’t a surprise to acolytes of Les Binet’s frameworks. His Share of Search (SoS) research is one of my favourite metrics. Why? It offers a direct glimpse into mental availability.
Binet’s research establishes how, based on the purchase cycle, search provides a quick and cost-effective way to assess both short and long-term market share.
For example, in the plan-heavy mobile phone category, Share of Search predicts market share with a lead time of six months. Similarly, for longer-purchase cycle categories such as automotive, it forecasts market share nine to 12 months in advance, and for switch-motivated energy decisions, it provides predictions within zero to three months.
With this in mind, for our Electric Vehicle example, Share of Search shows traditional EV brands like Tesla and Kia have a higher share than newly electrified legacy brands, reflecting their strong brand reputation.
A closer study of the search data indicates growing consumer interest in EV-exclusive brands, predicting which brands might dominate market share.
Share of Search predicts market share, but Search Intent is also crucial for understanding consumer behaviour. While Share of Search serves as a crystal ball, predicting future market trends, Search Intent unveils the desires and motivations fuelling those trends.
For example, searching for health symptoms online gives insights people might not share otherwise. Specific searches like “best family-friendly beaches in Hawaii” or “resorts Spain June” reveal preferences and decision-making stages.
Search keywords often reveal competitive gaps between brands if you take the time to look for them and are often the biggest opportunities left as high-return crumbs on the table for the taking.
This is valuable data that even large research companies may struggle to uncover, particularly when they rely on self-reported survey panels.
Why? Self-reported data can be misleading. A study found self-reported obesity rates were 2.4–7.6% lower than measured rates.
Social media data is demonstrated data too. Social media behaviour doesn’t always reveal our true preferences.
We might hesitate ‘liking’ what we truly appreciate and engage with posts we don’t care about. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz’s book ‘Everybody Lies’ shows that Google searches reveal hidden truths, like significant male interest in beauty (42%), weight loss (33%), and cosmetic surgery (39%).
Back to our Electric Vehicle example, the search intent behind EV-related terms indicates a compelling story for the burgeoning secondary market for EVs: new EVs and used EVs search volumes stand at a ratio of 9:1. This could be driven by affordability challenges, the growing circular economy, and supply chain issues driving consumers to buy second-hand.
In an era where customer opinions and sentiments are scattered across various online platforms, using search data can give greater context.
Share of Search provides a macroscopic view of market dynamics, while Search Intent offers a microscopic understanding of individual consumer behaviour critical to strategic audience understanding.
It is the crystal ball and glimpse into the minds of consumers that no other platform can provide. In an era where even the consumer is not 100% sure of what or how they‘re thinking, search is a performance channel that delivers insights. You just need to know how to read them.
Pawena Kaniah is a strategist at iProspect, a dentsu company.
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