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TV Networks set dates for post Easter franchises, amid increasingly intense race for revenue

MasterchefSeven and Ten have confirmed the launch dates for their key post Easter franchises, with Seven the first out of the gate with House Rules to return 7:30pm on Wednesday April 30 while Ten’s MasterChef will launch on Monday May 5 at 7.30pm. Nine is also expected to shortly announce the return date of The Voice, with the talent show also expected to launch in early May.

The networks have avoided launching their key post Easters franchises this Sunday to ensure they do not compete with the Logie Awards.

Media buyers have told Mumbrella that they expect the Seven and Nine Networks to perform strongly putting further pressure on the struggling Ten Network, which is bringing back Masterchef for its sixth season. There is also growing talk among media buyers about whether Nine will be able to reach its publicly stated goal of reaching 40 per cent revenue share ahead of its 2015 goal.

Victor Corones chief investment officer IPG Mediabrands, told Mumbrella: “It is possible for Nine to get that (40 per cent share) out of the market it is just a question on how they will continue to trade. I think the there will be downward pressure on Ten’s share delivery. If ratings can’t be turned around then that will put pressure on share delivery across the remainder of the year.”

Carat’s national head of investment & partnerships Paul Brooks said Nine’s performance in shows like The Voice would be key but said a lot had to go right for the network.

“I think Nine will give it a good nudge and come close to it,” said Brooks. “There are a lot of things that need to happen as well as a little bit of luck and the wind in the right direction to cross the magic 40 number for them. They are in a reasonable place but there is a long way to go and there are lot of shows that will need to perform to give them the best possible chance.”

“The way the market looks its hard to see them taking that share from Seven and Ten seems the more likely option.”

A spokesman for Ten said the network was confident that some of its key upcoming franchises would draw solid audiences. “We are confident that our new and returning shows over the next month or so – including MasterChef Australia, Offspring, 24: Live Another Day and Under The Dome – will perform well,” said the Ten spokesman.

“All media companies are under pressure to perform, at all times. But we reject the assumption that any pressure on Ten is automatically good news for Nine. Nine executives keep pushing that myth. It is a nonsense, as they well know.”

Zenith Optimedia’s Melbourne trading director Sue-Ellen Osborn said Nine’s push for 40 per cent was leading to a “two horse race”. “It will definitely ensure that they are competitive with Seven and it will be a two-horse race between the two of them in terms of hitting that higher share figure in terms of audience and revenue”, she said.

Out of the three returning franchises, IPG Mediabrands’ Corones expects The Voice to be the winner in terms of ratings.

“All three franchises (House Rules, The Voice, Masterchef) deliver very different things. They all have potential to attract a reasonable level of audience but obviously if you were to look at something like The Voice that will probably be delivering at the higher end in terms of ratings,” he said. 

“The reinvigoration of the judging panel bringing in Kylie Minogue, Will.i.am are really critical elements to keep the franchise fresh.

“Normally you would expect to see a decline up to 20 per cent year on year. The Voice if they hadn’t done that would have been expecting to see an audience of around 1.6m but with these changes they could continue to hover around the 2 million mark.”

ZO’s Osborn is in agreement. “The Voice is going to continue to be the better performer of the three franchises. If you look at how it’s done historically, it launched really well, it’s in its third year it will hold its audience year-on-year, I don’t think it will necessarily grow its audience even though it’s got new judges,” she said.

The winner announcement for The Voice last year rated a strong 2.307m metro viewers, however the number was well down on 2012’s 3.098m.

PHD managing director Toby Hack says the new judges, especially the addition of Kylie Minogue, will keep the show fresh.

“Someone like Kylie Minogue is a massive draw in this market and it will be interesting to see how she performs alongside two established judges. That’s always quite interesting because partly you want to see how the judges gel and work together so that should play to their advantage,” said Hack, whose agency represents Nine. “Certainly you’ve seen that in other countries, changes to the judging panel actually often help a franchise that hasn’t changed feel new because you have those new characters in there.”

Match Media trading director Theo Zisoglou is of the same opinion, he said: “The Voice should see an initial lift in numbers with the injection of Kylie (and ejection of Delta), while House Rules will look to build on their 2013 performance. Both will benefit from the pre-promotion they have been receiving on their other big franchises which have been getting great audience numbers which is where Masterchef will be at a disadvantage.”

He said the return of the franchises is “extremely important” in the “context that they can prop up the rest of the format and be used as pre-promotion for other programs”.

“Ten is still looking for that one vehicle that can lift their audience across the whole schedule and Masterchef has proven to be able to do this but unfortunately that was a few years ago.”

However, ZO’s Osborn said while Ten’s Q1 ratings performance won’t help, MasterChef is a well-known program which people will search for.

“They also have some quality dramas, Puberty Blues and Offspring, so there are some pockets of good, solid programming they can use as promotional vehicles as well. It’s not going to help them, there Q1 performance in terms of promoting Q2 but they do have some areas where they can really promote their programming quite well,” she said.

According to Ten, MasterChef Australia will air five times a week, including Sundays.*

“MasterChef is still a very solid franchise but its obviously starting to age a little bit and its unlikely to grow its audience year on year,” she said. “It will still have a solid performance but if you were going to rank the three it would be the third choice out of the three different properties especially on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday nights when they all go head-to-head.

The show’s winner announcement has seen a decline since its second season, with 3.745m metro viewers tuning in for the winner announcement of season one, increasing to 3.962m for season two but back down to 2.568m for season three and to 2.191m for season four. Last year’s winner announcement only saw 1.057m metro viewers tune in.

“The franchise has been around for a number of year and it does still have a hardcore fan following. In light of the way Ten is performing and where the franchise is I would expect ratings to sit around the 600,000-700,000 mark,” said IPG Mediabrands’ Victor Corones.

“I would say (Masterchef) is tired but you are obviously limited in what you can do in a format. The further you move away from the essence of a show the less appealing it becomes. Masterchef over time has strayed in and away from what is at the heart of the show, which is that people love the food and I think by putting too many clings and twists in a show you run the risk you start to alienate part of the audience.”

PHD managing director Toby Hack also isn’t ready to write off MasterChef which is heading into its sixth year.

“MasterChef remains a really, really strong, viable franchise and one that people have had a very big and personal connection to. As My Kitchen Rules has shown, people are still very connected to food and those human stories around food. It’s well established and tried and tested, I certainly wouldn’t write it off,” he said.

House Rules, the youngest of the three big returning franchises having only debuted last year, is expected to build on what it established in its first outing.

“House Rules is going to go quite well for Seven this year. It had an ok launch last year but it actually grew its audience every single week that it was on air and the positioned that it finished in last year was really, really strong so it will be a good performer for Seven. It will get better year-on-year but it won’t do as well as The Voice,” said ZO’s Osborn.

The final episode of Seven’s House Rules drew in 1.53m viewers across the five capital cities while the announcement of the winner drew an audience of 1.837m.

“House Rules will do well for the Seven Network. I can’t see it hitting the realms of an MKR in terms of ratings but I think it will be a good solid performer and if there is one thing we know it is that they are great at marketing their shows and driving audiences there,” said  Corones.

“I would expect ratings will hold around the 1.2m mark.”

Nic Christensen and Miranda Ward 

*Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Masterchef would not be shown on Sundays.

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